Category: AMTI Update

Second Thomas Shoal has become one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines. Since 1999, when the Philippines deliberately grounded the warship BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal, the feature has steadily evolved into a key front line in the broader maritime contest between the two […]

This article is written in response to Navigating the Divide: Why the U.S. Navy Must Resume FONOPs in Indonesia by Patrick Panjeti, Military Fellow at the CSIS Defence and Security Department. 1. Introduction: Misrepresenting Indonesia’s Legal Commitments In his essay “Navigating the Divide,” Patrick Panjeti presents a provocative and fictional scenario set in 2027: a […]

Southeast Asia is quietly entering a new strategic era, one defined not by the size of a navy’s fleet, but by the range of its missiles. Across the region, an emerging pattern is becoming visible. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are each moving rapidly to establish anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) postures. For some, the shift is born […]

For years, China has promoted the idea of “shelving disputes” in the South China Sea and focusing on areas of cooperation. Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—have been receptive to this approach to varying degrees. While this strategy brings significant economic benefits, it carries substantial long-term risks for their territorial claims and regional […]

Introduction On September 10, China approved the establishment of a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc in Tagalog or Huangyan Dao in Chinese, a coral atoll whose sovereignty is under dispute between China and the Philippines. According to Beijing, the reserve covers approximately one acre on the northeastern side of […]

In early May this year, the Malaysian government considered replacing the Tun Sharifah Rodziah static offshore forward operating base with a Mobile Offshore Base (MOB). This shift in thinking is not merely a logistical upgrade but a timely and strategic recalibration of the country’s maritime security architecture. Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin said […]

Europe and the Indo-Pacific may be connected by global data flows, but their submarine cable policies reflect vastly different priorities. In Europe, concerns over hostile state interference—particularly from Russia—have put resilience, redundancy, and rapid response at the center of policy frameworks. In contrast, Indo-Pacific governments are preoccupied with regional autonomy and digital sovereignty, responding to […]

Does Indonesia have a maritime strategy? There are two ways to approach this question: First, Jakarta does not have universally agreed national guidelines on maritime strategy. However, it consistently refers to three historical reference points: the Struggle for Independence (1945–49), the Djuanda Declaration (1957), and the Palapa Oath (14th century). These emphasize the far-flung archipelago of over 18,000 islands […]

The Philippines and the United States need to think about deterrence – as an Alliance – as President Donald Trump’s government lays out its future Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Philippines is likely to be in solidarity with how the second Trump administration will approach China. The Philippines also has room to be more proactive and bolder […]

On November 9, 2024, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed into law both the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes (ASL Act). Observers have been particularly focused on the Philippine Maritime Zones Act for intensifying the dispute between China and the Philippines, but it is the ASL Act that has broad […]

On April 10-14, 2024, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr embarked on a working visit to the United States. While the trip was his fourth to the United States since assuming office in 2022, it was arguably the most impactful yet. Indeed, President Marcos traveled to Washington to attend the inaugural Japan-Philippines-U.S. trilateral summit. The […]

It is no secret that the Indo-Pacific suffers from a maritime security shortfall. Natural disasters, criminal activities, and interstate tensions all endanger seafarers, undermine the well-being of coastal communities, and threaten regional calamity. While the risk of conflict in the South China Sea dominates the news, that is far from the region’s only maritime security […]

Recently there have been many dangerous encounters between the Philippines and China in the waters around the Second Thomas Shoal. It is an offshore maritime feature located in the exclusive economic of the Philippines, less than 200 nautical miles from the Philippine Island of Palawan, and almost 600 nautical miles from China’s Hainan Island. A […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

This article is part of the ‘Blue Security’ project led by La Trobe Asia, University of Western Australia Defence and Security Institute, Griffith Asia Institute, UNSW Canberra and the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy and Defence Dialogue (AP4D). Views expressed are solely of its author/s and not representative of the Maritime Exchange, the Australian Government, or any […]

As an archipelagic nation, the Philippines has unique experiences that shape how it manages its maritime domain. With internal and external maritime threats continuing to evolve and escalate in the region, the Philippines’ conceptualization and approach to maritime security must advance to meet the issues of the time and beyond. Maritime Security: Policies and On […]

At the 56th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting and its related meetings in Jakarta in July, it was announced that negotiations for the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (COC) had achieved progress on two fronts. First, the second reading of the Single Draft COC Negotiating Text was completed. Second, a set of […]

Introduction The South China Sea (SCS) is not only the main source of animal protein for the coastal communities of Asia, but also one of the world’s most productive fishing zones, producing approximately 12% of global fish catch in 2015. More than half of the world’s fishing vessels, from small artisanal fishing boats to large […]

A year after securing a landslide election victory, Philippine president Marcos Jr. has found himself in a political sweet spot. The Southeast Asian country posted robust economic growth despite fears of a global recession, while his approval ratings have remained extremely high despite public concerns over stubborn inflation in the past year. Marcos Jr. has […]

India has invested significant sums and resources in constructing and negotiating its military footprint in the Indian Ocean. Delhi has expanded its presence in the Andaman Islands and developed Mauritius’ Agaléga into a base. However, despite its tacit support spanning decades, one key island has remained off limits to Indian military planners: Diego Garcia. Despite […]

This article is part of Evolving Threats to Southeast Asia’s Maritime Security, a series of analyses produced by experts convened by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Located at the crossroads of the Indo-Pacific, the Southeast Asian region incorporates some of the world’s most essential straits and sea lines of communication. The region also […]

This article is part of Evolving Threats to Southeast Asia’s Maritime Security, a series of analyses produced by experts convened by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. How has the maritime terrorism threat evolved over the last 20 years? Twenty years ago, terrorist organizations such as Jemaah Islamiya (JI), the Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM), […]

Less than a year into office, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has already signaled a major overhaul in his country’s foreign policy. In response to China’s harassment of Philippine coast guard vessels in the South China Sea, the Filipino leader summoned Chinese ambassador Huang Xilian to express his “serious concern” over the “increasing frequency and […]

This article is part of Evolving Threats to Southeast Asia’s Maritime Security, a series of analyses produced by experts convened by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. How has the illicit maritime drug trafficking threat evolved over the last 20 years? Maritime drug trafficking has transformed into a long-standing threat to maritime security in […]