On August 19, 2014, a Chinese J-11B fighter dangerously intercepted a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft 135 miles east of Hainan Island. Media reports speculated that the U.S. surveillance effort was focused on China’s Yulin submarine base at nearby Hainan. U.S. officials soon divulged that this was just the latest in a string of at least four unsafe encounters since March of that year.
In what might be an event soon forgotten by the international community, China’s paramilitary forces once again demonstrated their willingness to use force to intimidate other countries and risk escalation. Although the specifics of the incident remain sketchy, reports indicate that on March 27 a speedboat, presumably operated by the China Coast Guard, fired seven times upon the unarmed Princess Johann, a Filipino fishing trawler, while the vessel was operating near Union Banks in the Spratly Islands, which is near Gaven Reef - one of China’s newly built artificial islands. It is unknown whether the incident occurred within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, international waters, or the territorial sea of a disputed feature. What is clear, however, is that incidents akin to what occurred at Union Banks could undermine the recent warming of relations between China and the Philippines, and underscore the need for a binding Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea.
This post summarizes one of nine case studies included in CSIS’s new report, Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia: The Theory and Practice of Gray Zone Deterrence. The full case study is also available for download here. (Principal case study researcher: Jake Douglas) The United States and China have long disagreed about the permissibility of certain […]
Have the United States and like-minded states already lost in the South China Sea? No, but they are losing, and quickly.
Admiral Michael McDevitt (Ret.) of the Center for Naval Analyses and Cortez Cooper of the RAND Corporation sit down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to look at new imagery of Chinese point defenses on the Spratly Islands.
Amid signs of Duterte rejecting the United States and pivoting fully toward China, the ongoing warmth of the Philippines' security relationship with Japan—China’s greatest rival in East Asia—hints at a greater balancing act within Duterte’s foreign policy vision.
China’s economic statecraft has softened the resolve of some EU member-states and groomed them to advocate Beijing’s position on the South China Sea. The slow erosion of Europe’s values as well as inability to come together and speak with one voice on rule of law contributes to the unraveling fabric of global governance. Beijing’s successful wedge […]
The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines, citing multiple Chinese violations of international law.
Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at CSIS, Lieutenant General Chip Gregson, senior adviser at Avascent International, and Andrew Shearer, former national security adviser to the Australian government and a visiting fellow with CSIS, recently joined AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss Asia’s contested waters. Listen below for the three experts’ […]
Introducing our New AMTI Director: Greg Poling By Michael J. Green Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS Chairman of the Editorial Board, AMTI CSIS is proud to announce our first “hail and farewell” at AMTI. We began in 2013 with an idea for a multimedia platform to promote transparency in maritime Asia […]