Analysis

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The year 2026 has been particularly active for Philippine diplomacy. With Myanmar deferred from assuming the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairmanship, the Philippines currently holds the rotating chairmanship and has hosted – and will continue to host – numerous ASEAN summits and ministerial meetings throughout the year. Beyond these multilateral responsibilities, Manila also […]

The Philippine Space Agency (PhilSA) is expected to launch the Multispectral Unit for Land Assessment (MULA) satellite in the final quarter of 2026. This will mark a significant milestone in the development of the country’s space program. The advancement of indigenous space capabilities will enable the Philippines to reduce its dependence on foreign satellite data […]

Key takeaways Under international law, Indonesia has the obligation to ensure transit passage in the Malacca Strait; imposing a fee on vessels passing through the strait is illegal. However, Indonesia can maximize its strategic location by improving port infrastructure for maritime services, including bunker supply, ship-to-ship transfers, underwater hull cleaning, and crew services, which currently […]

Second Thomas Shoal has become one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines. Since 1999, when the Philippines deliberately grounded the warship BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal, the feature has steadily evolved into a key front line in the broader maritime contest between the two […]

This article is written in response to Navigating the Divide: Why the U.S. Navy Must Resume FONOPs in Indonesia by Patrick Panjeti, Military Fellow at the CSIS Defence and Security Department. 1. Introduction: Misrepresenting Indonesia’s Legal Commitments In his essay “Navigating the Divide,” Patrick Panjeti presents a provocative and fictional scenario set in 2027: a […]

Southeast Asia is quietly entering a new strategic era, one defined not by the size of a navy’s fleet, but by the range of its missiles. Across the region, an emerging pattern is becoming visible. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia are each moving rapidly to establish anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) postures. For some, the shift is born […]

For years, China has promoted the idea of “shelving disputes” in the South China Sea and focusing on areas of cooperation. Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—have been receptive to this approach to varying degrees. While this strategy brings significant economic benefits, it carries substantial long-term risks for their territorial claims and regional […]

Introduction On September 10, China approved the establishment of a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc in Tagalog or Huangyan Dao in Chinese, a coral atoll whose sovereignty is under dispute between China and the Philippines. According to Beijing, the reserve covers approximately one acre on the northeastern side of […]