Observers often attribute contradictory statements from the Duterte administration to the natural byproduct of having such a notoriously mercurial character as commander-in-chief. What this conventional strand of analysis misses is the fact that Duterte and his generals are in a constant low-intensity struggle over shaping the Philippines’ policies on sensitive territorial and strategic issues.
Reports of Chinese oceanographic research vessels operating off the western coast of the Philippines in late 2016 have stirred up controversy in Manila this month. In this AMTI podcast, Greg Poling speaks with Peter Dutton, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, and Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines’ Institute for Maritime Affairs and the Law of the Sea, to assess what the Chinese vessels were doing, whether it was legal, the public response, and what the controversy says about future cooperation between China and the Philippines
Philippine secretary of national defense Delfin Lorenzana stirred up a political maelstrom in Manila last week with the revelation that Chinese survey vessels were apparently conducting oceanographic research work off the east coast of Luzon, the largest island of the Philippines.
AMTI Director Gregory Poling discusses the implications of Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte's relationship with Donald Trump, its impact on the U.S.-PH alliance and maritime security, the fallout from Duterte’s drug war, and the decisions facing both sides.
If the Philippine military is conscripted into Rodrigo Duterte's drug war and participates in extra-judicial killings, congressional regulations could force the United States to suspend military aid and training to the units involved, a potentially devastating impact on the bilateral military relationship.
A new chapter has begun in the long-stale Philippines-Russia relationship.
The surprising election of Donald Trump has raised hopes for a less fraught relationship between Washington and Manila in the near future.
Key agreements and relationships remain in place for a U.S.-Philippine alliance reset under the incoming Donald Trump administration, but there are reasons to be skeptical about whether the relationship can be put back on an upward trajectory.
Security analysts have questioned whether U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation can survive six years of a Philippine president seemingly driven by anti-Western ideology. Those fears should be somewhat allayed, as Duterte has walked back some of his earlier pronouncements and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has declared that the Philippine-U.S. security alliance will not be abrogated and that the EDCA will stay in place.
Breaking with tradition, the Philippines’ controversial leader Rodrigo Duterte chose China for the first major state visit of his presidency. Traditionally, Filipino leaders have visited “all-weather” friends such as Washington or Tokyo before Beijing. This time, however, the Filipino president decided to postpone a scheduled visit to Japan in favor of China, while signaling strategic […]
Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court of the Philippines sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss constitutional requirements for any joint fisheries or oil and gas deal in the South China Sea, as well as the limits of President Rodrigo Duterte’s power to change treaty commitments.
Amid signs of Duterte rejecting the United States and pivoting fully toward China, the ongoing warmth of the Philippines' security relationship with Japan—China’s greatest rival in East Asia—hints at a greater balancing act within Duterte’s foreign policy vision.
The Philippines’ newly minted president couldn’t have asked for a more high-profile diplomatic debut when he attended this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, which saw the participation of the leaders from across the Asia Pacific, including the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and India, along with the secretary-general of the United Nations. […]
Consistent with his campaign promise, the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte has stepped up efforts to mend ties with China, despite the latter’s flagrant rejection of the Philippines’ recent law-fare victory at The Hague. Duterte has deputized no less than former president Fidel Ramos, who also dealt with Chinese maritime assertiveness in the mid-1990s, to […]
International law does not contain an enforcement mechanism comparable to those of domestic legal systems. However, in the majority of cases, states do comply with the decisions of international courts and tribunals, albeit to varying extents.
AMTI Director Gregory Poling talks to Paul Reichler, partner at Foley Hoag and lead counsel for the Philippines in its arbitration case against China.
The Duterte administration faces important decisions after the ruling.
The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines, citing multiple Chinese violations of international law.
Duterte amends previous geopolitical agenda to maintain U.S.-Philippines security and to establish economic cooperation with China.
U.S. security and diplomacy trends in Asia mark an uncertain future.
International pressure will determine the effectiveness of the Hague’s ruling
U.S.-Philippine security cooperation will combat China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea
For Duterte, development rather than deterrence is the way forward
Transforming Scarborough into an artificial island-fortress could be the endgame in China’s rush to establish and consolidate control over the South China Sea.
This year’s military exercise reflects the changing nature of the U.S.-Philippines alliance in light of heightened tensions generated by China’s expansion in the South China Sea.
Anti-China sentiment is at historic highs among the Filipino public, leaving little room for major foreign policy recalibration
To block Chinese reclamation, Philippine assets must prepare to take the lead in intervention at short notice.
U.S. ratification of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea has bipartisan support, but it could lead to the loss of 200 exclusive economic zones
Philippine defense secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Japanese ambassador to the Philippines Kazuhide Ishikawa on February 29 signed a new defense agreement to allow the transfer of defense equipment and technology from Japan to the Philippines. It also provides for the Philippines and Japan to conduct joint research and development, and even joint production, of defense […]