Duterte Faces Domestic Resistance

By | April 13, 2017 | Categories: Philippines
Observers often attribute contradictory statements from the Duterte administration to the natural byproduct of having such a notoriously mercurial character as commander-in-chief. What this conventional strand of analysis misses is the fact that Duterte and his generals are in a constant low-intensity struggle over shaping the Philippines’ policies on sensitive territorial and strategic issues.

Podcast: Chinese Research Vessels in Benham Rise, with Peter Dutton and Jay Batongbacal

By | March 29, 2017 | Categories: China, Philippines, Podcast
Reports of Chinese oceanographic research vessels operating off the western coast of the Philippines in late 2016 have stirred up controversy in Manila this month. In this AMTI podcast, Greg Poling speaks with Peter Dutton, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, and Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines’ Institute for Maritime Affairs and the Law of the Sea, to assess what the Chinese vessels were doing, whether it was legal, the public response, and what the controversy says about future cooperation between China and the Philippines

Raging Waters in Benham Rise

By | March 22, 2017 | Categories: Philippines
Philippine secretary of national defense Delfin Lorenzana stirred up a political maelstrom in Manila last week with the revelation that Chinese survey vessels were apparently conducting oceanographic research work off the east coast of Luzon, the largest island of the Philippines.

President Duterte’s Backtracking Prompts Hope for Compromise

By | December 1, 2016 | Categories: Military Exercises, Philippines, South China Sea
Security analysts have questioned whether U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation can survive six years of a Philippine president seemingly driven by anti-Western ideology. Those fears should be somewhat allayed, as Duterte has walked back some of his earlier pronouncements and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has declared that the Philippine-U.S. security alliance will not be abrogated and that the EDCA will stay in place.

Duterte’s Uncertain China Gamble

By | November 3, 2016 | Categories: China, Philippines
Breaking with tradition, the Philippines’ controversial leader Rodrigo Duterte chose China for the first major state visit of his presidency. Traditionally, Filipino leaders have visited “all-weather” friends such as Washington or Tokyo before Beijing. This time, however, the Filipino president decided to postpone a scheduled visit to Japan in favor of China, while signaling strategic […]

Podcast: Justice Antonio Carpio on the South China Sea and Limits of Presidential Power in the Philippines

By | October 31, 2016 | Categories: Philippines, Podcast, South China Sea
Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court of the Philippines sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss constitutional requirements for any joint fisheries or oil and gas deal in the South China Sea,  as well as the limits of President Rodrigo Duterte’s power to change treaty commitments.  

Duterte’s Colorful Diplomatic Debut

By | September 15, 2016 | Categories: ASEAN, Philippines, South China Sea, United States
The Philippines’ newly minted president couldn’t have asked for a more high-profile diplomatic debut when he attended this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, which saw the participation of the leaders from across the Asia Pacific, including the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and India, along with the secretary-general of the United Nations. […]

Can Ramos Break the Ice in Philippines-China Relations?

By | August 16, 2016 | Categories: China, Philippines, South China Sea
Consistent with his campaign promise, the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte has stepped up efforts to mend ties with China, despite the latter’s flagrant rejection of the Philippines’ recent law-fare victory at The Hague. Duterte has deputized no less than former president Fidel Ramos, who also dealt with Chinese maritime assertiveness in the mid-1990s, to […]

The Philippines and Japan Sign New Defense Agreement

By | March 15, 2016 | Categories: Japan, Philippines, South China Sea
Philippine defense secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Japanese ambassador to the Philippines Kazuhide Ishikawa on February 29 signed a new defense agreement to allow the transfer of defense equipment and technology from Japan to the Philippines. It also provides for the Philippines and Japan to conduct joint research and development, and even joint production, of defense […]

A Tumultuous 2016 in the South China Sea

By | February 22, 2016 | Categories: China, Philippines, South China Sea, Spratly Islands
This promises to be a landmark year for the claimant countries and other interested parties in the South China Sea disputes. Developments that have been underway for several years, especially China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys and Manila’s arbitration case against Beijing, will come to fruition. These and other developments will draw outside players, including […]