The Post-Reclamation Scenario in the South China Sea: The Role of China and the United States.

By | March 23, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, South China Sea
Since 2014, China has attracted tremendous regional and international attention through its land reclamation activities in some features of the Spratlys which it controls, namely Gaven Reef, Cuarteron Reef, Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross. While many have criticisms and concerns, China feels this reclamation is necessary in order to keep up with others in […]

Vietnam Ramps Up Defense Spending, but Its Challenges Remain

By and | March 18, 2015 | Categories: Defense Budgets, Vietnam
Vietnam boosted its military spending by 113 percent between 2004 and 2013, the largest increase among Southeast Asian countries. Defense spending has accounted for around 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product since 2004. Total spending was $3.3 billion in 2012 and $3.4 billion in 2013 (the latest year for which figures are available), […]

Fixed Budget, Dynamic Defense in Japan

By | March 18, 2015 | Categories: Defense Budgets, Japan
As AMTI readers know well, tensions between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands have been running high since 2010. Despite a partial thaw when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with President Xi Jinping last December, Beijing continues to put steady pressure on Tokyo’s control of the islands with regular maritime and aerial incursions and […]

Taiwan’s Defense Spending: The Security Consequences of Choosing Butter over Guns

By and | March 18, 2015 | Categories: Defense Budgets, Taiwan
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced on March 4 that it would raise its defense budget by 10.1 percent in 2015, which continues an almost unbroken pattern of double-digit annual increases over the past two decades. Meanwhile, defense spending by the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan, which faces an ever-growing military threat from […]

The Evolving Role of Military Exercises in Asia

By and | March 4, 2015 | Categories: China, Military Exercises, South China Sea, United States
AMTI Director Mira Rapp Hooper interviews former Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead on the evolving role of military exercises in the Asia Pacific. Interview Transcript Mira Rapp Hooper: Hello everyone, I’m Mira Rapp Hooper, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and I’m very pleased to be here today with Admiral Gary Roughead. […]

The Contribution of Maritime Exercises to U.S. South China Sea Policy

By | March 4, 2015 | Categories: Military Exercises, South China Sea, United States
The U.S. policy approach to maritime disputes in the South China Sea is primarily diplomatic but not entirely so. While it focuses on creating stability by exhorting all the parties to follow the rules (international law) and explicitly defines how Washington would like conflicts to be solved (peacefully); it does not neglect hard-power initiatives aimed […]

PLA’s Deeper Engagement in Military Drills Aligns with Xi’s Call for “Active” Chinese Diplomacy

By | March 3, 2015 | Categories: China, Military Exercises
Chinese President Xi Jinping last November delivered a keynote address to a Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference (CFAWC) of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the first to be held under his stewardship as China’s top leader. Attending the meeting were all six of Xi’s Politburo Standing Committee colleagues, the rest of the full Politburo, China’s […]

China Responds to Reclamation Reports

By | February 26, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, Philippines, United States, Vietnam
On February 26, the semi-official China Military Online reported that Beijing is conducting “large-scale” land reclamation in the disputed Spratly Islands—activities that the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and major news outlets worldwide have been watching closely in recent weeks. In a follow-on article, Reuters called this public acknowledgment of work on six reefs “unusual.” We […]

Before and After: The South China Sea Transformed

By | February 18, 2015 | Categories: Land Reclamation, Malaysia, Philippines, South China Sea, Spratly Islands, Vietnam
Source image: Google Earth This map shows four land features in the Spratly Islands that have undergone significant construction or land reclamation work in the past year. They are: Itu Aba, Gaven Reef, Johnson South Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef. Read more details about the features of these projects and use click and drag the […]

Reclamation in the South China Sea: Legal Loopholes, Practical Impacts

By | February 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, Philippines, South China Sea
As if they were not complicated enough, the South China Sea disputes took a new turn in 2014 when China began massive land reclamation work in the region. The Philippines released photographs showing an unprecedented transformation of formerly pristine and submerged Johnson South Reef into high and dry white sand swarming with construction activity. Satellite […]

Construction in the South China Sea: A Comparative View

By | February 18, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, Taiwan, Vietnam
Much has been written and reported on China’s recent land reclamation and mass construction activities in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which raise alarm about Chinese plans to alter the status quo in the South China Sea. Of course, Chinese and even Taiwanese officials and scholars have put forward complaints that it is unfair to […]

The Legal Challenge of China’s Island Building

By | February 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, Philippines, South China Sea, Vietnam
Those closely following the situation in the South China Sea have been wringing their hands about the military potential of China’s unprecedented island building work over the last year. This anxiety is understandable, and the expanded patrol and surveillance capacity that Beijing is constructing with facilities, docks, and probably at least one airstrip in the […]

Positive Signs for Crisis Management in the East China Sea

By | February 4, 2015 | Categories: China, Confidence Building Measures, Japan
Following the first meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2014, Tokyo and Beijing have resumed official talks to turn the East China Sea into a zone of “peace, cooperation, and friendship.” On January 12, representative from each country’s defense ministry, navy, and air force met in Tokyo […]

In Confidence: Will We Know if US-China CBMs Are Working?

By and | February 4, 2015 | Categories: China, Confidence Building Measures, United States
In November 2014, the United States and China concluded two major confidence-building measures (CBMs), which they announced at a bilateral summit. The CBMs include an agreement that each side will notify the other of major military activities, and a code of conduct for safe maritime and air encounters. Where the code of conduct is concerned, […]

What’s in a CBM?: Watching for Direct and Indirect Measures of Confidence

By | February 4, 2015 | Categories: China, Confidence Building Measures, United States
It’s hard to imagine that the risk of war in Asia could hinge on something as pedestrian and mundane-sounding as “confidence-building measures” or CBMs. Yet this obscure piece of security terminology, originating during the Cold War, is now front and center in discussions of the future of U.S.-China strategic relations. Policymakers and military leaders in […]

A New Vision for U.S.-India Cooperation in Asia

By | February 4, 2015 | Categories: Confidence Building Measures, India, United States
President Barack Obama’s visit to India on January 25-27, 2015 renewed India’s place as a centerpiece of the “pivot to Asia.” Moving ahead with long-pending strategic deals on civilian nuclear trade and defense co-development, along with the renewal of our expiring New Framework for the U.S. India Defense Relationship, underscores the new cooperative spirit with […]

Arbitration 101: Philippines v. China

By | January 21, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines
Introduction The arbitration case launched by the Philippines against China currently stands as the most significant, and most closely watched, development for specialists and observers of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS). To help observers navigate through this foggy proceeding, this article attempts to provide a focused overview of the arbitration case […]

The Diplomatic Implications of Philippines-China Arbitration

By | January 21, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines
When it comes to the South China Sea, the year 2014 was a rollercoaster. With Manila’s arbitration efforts against Beijing gaining momentum, 2015 will present new challenges not only to Philippine-China bilateral relations, but also to the very credibility of international arbitration bodies under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of […]

Why Manila Shouldn’t Hope to Win It All in Arbitration

By | January 21, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines
The next stage in the Philippines’ closely-watched arbitration case against China’s maritime claims will come in March when Manila’s lawyers submit their answers to questions posed last month by the five judge panel overseeing the case. The Philippines has put together a clever case, one that seeks to skirt China’s exemptions to compulsory arbitration as […]

Blunting China’s Realpolitik Approach: Liberalism through UNCLOS Arbitration

By | January 21, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines
The 2012 Scarborough Shoal stand-off between the Philippines and China was the proverbial tipping point caused by China’s pattern of protracted, aggressive actions against the Philippines that began two years earlier. In mid-2010, the Philippine government had observed an increased Chinese naval presence and activities in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), recorded reports of […]

Legal Posturing and Power Relations in the South China Sea

By | January 21, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, Vietnam
One of the weakest military and economic powers in the region – the Philippines – took the strongest – China – to international court in 2013. The Philippines challenges China’s assertion of vast maritime claims over the South China Sea, pursuant to detailed rules and binding dispute resolution processes of the UN Convention of the […]

China’s Maritime Actors: Coordinated and Directed from the Top

By | January 14, 2015 | Categories: China, Strategy
China’s various maritime actors are increasingly being coordinated and directed by senior policymakers as part of a larger strategy aimed at protecting China’s sovereignty and maritime rights. The first signs of strengthened coordination and supervision were evident as early as mid-2012, when Chinese maritime vessels and Chinese fishing boats—with People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships […]

Advancing the Rebalance in Southeast Asia

By and | January 7, 2015 | Categories: South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Strategy, United States
The year 2015 provides the Obama administration with new opportunities in Southeast Asia to reinforce and bolster the rebalance to Asia. Myanmar In Myanmar, the United States should expand its support and training efforts to build political parties, strengthen the parliament, and prepare for monitoring activities ahead of the country’s 2015 elections to ensure they […]