“Self-Restraint” with Japanese Characteristics
Japan’s model of self-restraint in the Senkaku Islands is a model of regional stability for China in the South China Sea
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The South China Sea Tests
Following the U.S.-ASEAN leaders’ summit tensions rise, testing international rules and norms
Setting a high bar down under: An American perspective on Australia’s White Paper
The Australian Defence White Paper was a long time coming, but it was worth the wait. From an American perspective, the White Paper is a carefully crafted document that will leave many in Washington both pleased with and envious of Canberra’s strategic conceptualisation and connection of ends and means. The White Paper notes that ‘a […]
Vietnam’s South China Sea Approach after National Congress
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was unanimously reelected during the 12th National Congress of Vietnam’s Communist Party, held January 21-28. Trong, who is less strident than other Vietnamese leaders in his criticism of Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea, has been seen as leading the party’s more conservative, pro-Chinese faction. But many in Hanoi […]
A Tumultuous 2016 in the South China Sea
This promises to be a landmark year for the claimant countries and other interested parties in the South China Sea disputes. Developments that have been underway for several years, especially China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys and Manila’s arbitration case against Beijing, will come to fruition. These and other developments will draw outside players, including […]
Seeing the Forest through the SAMs on Woody Island
The recent deployment of Chinese surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to Woody Island is a notable tactical development, but a far more significant strategic signal. Tactically, the HQ-9 batteries deployed to Woody Island could target aircraft at ranges up to 125 miles (200 kilometers), covering much of the Paracel Islands, which are also claimed by Vietnam and […]
Sunnylands and America’s Pivot to ASEAN
China may be gaining the strategic upper-hand in the ongoing scramble in the South China Sea thanks to its newly-built artificial islands, but it is facing increasing backlash in the region. Neighboring states as well as external powers have stepped up their diplomatic pressure on Beijing, while coordinating their efforts at safeguarding freedom of […]
EDCA Refocus: Eyes on the AFP’s Modernization Program
On January 12, the Philippine Supreme Court ruled that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and the United States is an executive agreement that does not require Senate approval. With the ruling in hand, the Philippines and the United States governments can begin in earnest to implement the 2014 deal, which mainly […]
South China Sea FONOP 2.0: A Step in the Right Direction
The Navy destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur passed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island, the southernmost of the Paracel Islands, on January 30 in the second operation in the South China Sea in recent months under the Department of Defense’s Freedom of Navigation Program. And despite significant disappointment in some quarters, the operation was a […]
Philippine Supreme Court Approves EDCA: Unlocking the Door for the Return of U.S. Strategic Footprint in Southeast Asia
On January 12 the Philippine Supreme Court came out with a courageous decision reaffirming the constitutionality of the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the Philippines and the United States. In a 10 to 4 decision, the Supreme Court upheld the EDCA, paving way for the return of forward-deployed U.S. forces to select Philippine […]
Getting the Balance Right: Singapore and Sino-U.S. Rivalry in the South China Sea
In November, Singapore hosted a visit by Chinese president Xi Jinping. Notwithstanding the conclusion of several bilateral agreements, the spotlight invariably focused on Xi’s comments on the South China Sea, where he reiterated China’s commitment to freedom of navigation and the peaceful resolution of the South China Sea disputes. Xi’s assurances were timely given regional […]
Is There Drinkable Water and Topsoil on Itu Aba?
I visited Itu Aba, or Taiping Island in Chinese, on December 12 alongside a group of high-ranking Taiwanese government officials to attend the opening ceremonies for new piers and a lighthouse. It was my fourth visit to the island. These visits provided me an opportunity to answer for myself the following questions being asked of […]
Time is of the Essence in South China Sea Arbitration Case
The timing of the decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on the Philippines’ case against China’s nine-dash-line claims has critical geopolitical implications for Asia’s security. Specifically, a decision delivered well before the Philippine presidential election this May would allow the administration of President Benigno Aquino to respond strategically and with continuity, […]
Malaysia: Recalibrating Its South China Sea Policy?
For a little over a year, between 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, Malaysia’s policy surrounding the South China Sea dispute hit a shroud of confusion. Taken aback by Chinese naval patrols around James Shoal (Beting Serupai in Malay), only 43 nautical miles off the coast of Sarawak State, the government responded with a […]
A Tour of Itu Aba Island
Itu Aba/Taiping Island is the largest naturally-formed feature in the disputed Spratly Islands and the only one occupied by the Republic of China (Taiwan). Its legal status has become a topic of heated debate as the Philippines has argued before an arbitral tribunal at The Hague that Itu Aba cannot sustain human habitation or independent […]
Philippines and Japan Strengthen a Twenty-First Century Security Partnership
During a bilateral meeting at the November 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Manila, Philippine president Benigno Aquino and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe agreed in principle to negotiate the transfer of defense equipment and technology from the Japan Self-Defense Forces to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). If completed, this accord would […]
Possible Consequences of the Philippines’ South China Sea Arbitration Case
The Philippines’ arbitration case against China has created significant new dynamics in the South China Sea disputes. With the prospect of a ruling from the tribunal in the coming months, it is time to ponder the case’s possible consequences. The tribunal will likely reach a decision on at least the seven submissions by the Philippines […]
An Interview with Shen Lyu-shun, Representative of the Republic of China to the United States
Shen Lyu-shun, representative of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the United States, sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss the recent visit of Interior Minister Chen Wei-zen to Itu Aba, or Taiping Island, Taiwan stance on the Philippines’ arbitration case against China, and Taipei’s South China Sea strategy.
AMTI Director Gregory Poling on the CogitAsia Podcast
AMTI Director Gregory Poling visits the CogitAsia podcast to discuss developments in the South China Sea.
Daily Life on Thitu Island
Thitu Island, called Pag-asa in Filipino, is the largest of the disputed Spratly Islands occupied by the Philippines. It is also the only one that is home to a civilian population. In addition to a small number of military personnel, over 100 civilians, mostly civil servants and their families, live on Thitu. The island is […]
An Interview with Paul Reichler, Lead Counsel for the Philippines in its Case against China
Paul Reicher, partner at Foley Hoag and lead counsel for Manila in its arbitration case against Beijing’s South China Sea claims, sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss why Manila is pursuing arbitration, the proceedings to-date, and what comes next. You can listen to the entire interview or skip to individual sections by […]
Confidence Building through Climate Change in the South China Sea
More than 190 nations have converged in Paris for the United Nations conference on climate change, or the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21). Their goal is to arrest global warming below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) through a legally binding and universal agreement. Scientists posit that temperature is a critical component of the climate […]
Michael Green, Chip Gregson, and Andrew Shearer Discuss Asia’s Maritime Disputes
Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at CSIS, Lieutenant General Chip Gregson, senior adviser at Avascent International, and Andrew Shearer, former national security adviser to the Australian government and a visiting fellow with CSIS, recently joined AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss Asia’s contested waters. Listen below for the three experts’ […]
Will India Truly Start “Acting East” in Andaman and Nicobar?
This September, while Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met with tech titans in Silicon Valley, his administration quietly unveiled a $1.5 billion development package for the isolated Andaman and Nicobar island chains, meant to turn the islands’ capital city, Port Blair, into a hub of the ship repair industry by developing port infrastructure. Less than […]
Regional Summits and the South China Sea: Wading Into the Storm
Ahead of this month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and ASEAN summits, regional maritime tensions have taken a dangerous turn, potentially setting off a new round of confrontation between relevant powers. A month after the meeting of Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping in Washington, during which the two leaders signed off on new confidence-building measures […]
Xi’s Vietnam Visit: More Symbol than Substance
President Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam on November 5-6 was the first by a Chinese president in 10 years. Hu Jintao made a trip in November 2005, when relations between the two countries were relatively relaxed. The period from 2006 to 2008, when China reached out to Southeast Asian neighbors and cooperated with the United […]
Implications of the Philippines v. China Award on Jurisdiction
The Philippines scored a procedural victory on October 29, successfully dodging the jurisdiction and admissibility objections posed by China’s position paper released last December regarding Manila’s case against Beijing’s South China Sea claims. In a 151-page decision, a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague affirmed the primacy of the United Nations […]
An Interview with Gregory Poling on FONOPS, Arbitration, and South China Sea Strategy
AMTI director Gregory Poling sits down with Colm Quinn to discuss the the U.S. Navy’s recent freedom of navigation operation, U.S. policy in the South China Sea, the ongoing Philippine-China arbitration case, and what a long-term solution to the dispute might look like. This interview was originally recorded for the October 31 CSIS Podcast.
Can Japan Join U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea?
The United States has started long overdue freedom of navigation (FON) operations in the South China Sea. Washington launched the FON program in 1979 to challenge coastal states’ excessive maritime claims through diplomatic engagement and operational assertion. During the Cold War the United States conducted FON operations in Soviet territorial seas, where Moscow did not […]
An Interview with Bonnie Glaser on FONOPs and China’s Reaction
Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project, sits down with CogitAsia editor Jeffrey Bean to discuss the U.S. Navy’s recent freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea and assess China’s reaction. This interview was originally recorded for the CogitAsia Podcast.