Counter-Coercion Series: Second Thomas Shoal Incident

By , , , and | June 9, 2017 | Categories: South China Sea
In May 2013, China increased its presence near a Philippine outpost in the South China Sea. Chinese coast guard and other vessels were spotted only a few miles from Second Thomas Shoal. Since 1999, Philippine marines have occupied a dilapidated warship—the BRP Sierra Madre—atop this coral atoll in the disputed Spratly Islands. Manila’s foreign affairs department protested the onset of continuous Chinese patrols, calling them “provocative and illegal.” Other leaders acknowledged that Beijing could not be lawfully denied freedom of navigation around the reef, but still feared for the safety of Manila’s supply lines to its dilapidated garrison.

President Duterte’s Backtracking Prompts Hope for Compromise

By | December 1, 2016 | Categories: Military Exercises, Philippines, South China Sea
Security analysts have questioned whether U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation can survive six years of a Philippine president seemingly driven by anti-Western ideology. Those fears should be somewhat allayed, as Duterte has walked back some of his earlier pronouncements and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has declared that the Philippine-U.S. security alliance will not be abrogated and that the EDCA will stay in place.

Vietnam’s Foreign Policy: In Search of a New Delicate Balance

By and | November 10, 2016 | Categories: South China Sea, Strategy, Vietnam
Developments in the international affairs of Southeast Asia are generating considerable uncertainty and doubt among regional players, including Vietnam. Seeking a delicate balance between great powers, and among other regional states, is a necessity for Hanoi to keep Vietnam’s national interests and relationships with other countries undamaged.

Podcast: Justice Antonio Carpio on the South China Sea and Limits of Presidential Power in the Philippines

By | October 31, 2016 | Categories: Philippines, Podcast, South China Sea
Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court of the Philippines sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss constitutional requirements for any joint fisheries or oil and gas deal in the South China Sea,  as well as the limits of President Rodrigo Duterte’s power to change treaty commitments.  

Of Claims and Freedoms: Diverging Perspectives on the South China Sea

By | October 27, 2016 | Categories: South China Sea, Strategy
Power differentials between states affect how they view and respond to the South China Sea disputes. Small powers largely see them as a clash of unilateral territorial and maritime claims over all or part of the semi-enclosed sea, whereas big powers frame them in a more strategic manner – a contest for control over a critical international waterway. Small powers focus on immediate and direct concerns like resource access, whereas big powers stress universal freedoms of navigation and overflight. Lumping claims and freedoms together muddles and complicates the resolution of South China Sea disputes. Disaggregating them, however, may allow for opportunities to tackle part of the dispute separately.

Podcast: Setting the Historic Record Straight in the South China Sea, with Bill Hayton

By | September 23, 2016 | Categories: Arbitration, South China Sea
Following his public discussion about the very modern origin of China’s claims in the South China Sea, Bill Hayton sits down with AMTI Director Greg Poling for a deeper dive on how the topic continues to complicate the dispute. He summarizes how China’s claims emerged in the early 20th century, outlines their subsequent expansion, and […]

Duterte’s Colorful Diplomatic Debut

By | September 15, 2016 | Categories: ASEAN, Philippines, South China Sea, United States
The Philippines’ newly minted president couldn’t have asked for a more high-profile diplomatic debut when he attended this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, which saw the participation of the leaders from across the Asia Pacific, including the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and India, along with the secretary-general of the United Nations. […]

Vietnam’s Need for a Post-Arbitration Policy

By and | August 18, 2016 | Categories: Arbitration, South China Sea, Vietnam
The July 12 judgement of the tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding Manila’s case against Beijing’s South China Sea claims has reshaped the geostrategic landscape in Southeast Asia. But surprisingly, Vietnam has only issued a brief statement on the verdict, with Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Le Hai Binh saying that “Vietnam welcomes […]

Can Ramos Break the Ice in Philippines-China Relations?

By | August 16, 2016 | Categories: China, Philippines, South China Sea
Consistent with his campaign promise, the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte has stepped up efforts to mend ties with China, despite the latter’s flagrant rejection of the Philippines’ recent law-fare victory at The Hague. Duterte has deputized no less than former president Fidel Ramos, who also dealt with Chinese maritime assertiveness in the mid-1990s, to […]

Misinterpretation and Consequences of Arbitration: A Chinese Perspective

By | August 9, 2016 | Categories: Arbitration, East China Sea, South China Sea
When the tribunal deciding the South China Sea arbitration case brought by the Philippines against China issued its award on July 12, the international media seemed impressed by the landslide decision in favor of the Philippines on almost all of its claims. Many reported that the ruling was a rebuke of China’s sovereignty claims, but […]