China’s Airfield Construction at Fiery Cross Reef in Context: Catch-Up or Coercion?

By and | July 29, 2015 | Categories: China, South China Sea, Spratly Islands
Although China is not the first state to build an airstrip in the South China Sea, it is the first state to employ island-building technologies to transform a contested maritime feature into a military base that extends the reach of offensive military capabilities. Other countries have worked to project power to contested South China Sea […]

Why the Philippines’ Case Should Pass the Jurisdiction and Admissibility Tests

By | July 23, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Philippines has been widely applauded for bringing the first ever arbitration case relating to the South China Sea disputes before an UNCLOS Arbitration Tribunal, but it still needs to clear the three hurdles of jurisdiction, admissibility and merit. In other words, Manila needs to prove that its case falls within the Tribunal’s jurisdiction, that […]

The Philippines between Scylla and Charybdis at The Hague

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Annex VII arbitral tribunal heard oral arguments from the Philippines last week on the issues of jurisdiction and admissibility of claims in the case it launched against China. Despite high hopes placed on Manila’s cause, these issues remain the most formidable legal obstacles to be surmounted. While the Philippine Memorial has not been made […]

The Battle of The Hague: Philippines v. China in the South China Sea

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, Philippines, South China Sea
The Philippines’ lawfare (legal warfare) against China has reached a critical juncture. More than two years after initiating compulsory arbitration against China, the Southeast Asian country faces the crucial task of proving that the Arbitral Tribunal, formed under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has the mandate […]

What Makes an Island? Land Reclamation and the South China Sea Arbitration

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, Philippines
We have all heard about land reclamation by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea, particularly the southeastern region known as the Spratly Group. But much less is being said about what the Permanent Court of Arbitration just finished considering for the past week: are artificial islands really islands? According to […]

Taiwan’s Response to the Philippines-PRC South China Sea Arbitration

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea, Taiwan
On December 8, 2014, the Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands deposited with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), the Registry for the South China Sea arbitral proceedings, a Note Verbale. The PCA was asked to forward the Position Paper of the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Matters of Jurisdiction in the […]

The Post-Hearing Reality in the South China Sea Arbitration Case

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Hague hearing on jurisdiction and admissibility of the South China Sea arbitration case has come to an end on July 13 after a weeklong process without China’s participation. The hearing has become a heated headline for medias, governments, and scholars for the past week. Questions include whether the Arbitral Tribunal will issue a decision […]

Sophistry and Bad Messaging in the South China Sea

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: China, Malaysia, Philippines, South China Sea, Vietnam
Chinese authorities, as well as sympathetic writers, have in recent months sought to deflect criticism of China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys by insisting that Beijing is merely copying what other claimants have done for years. According to this narrative, every claimant is as guilty as Beijing of altering the status of features in the […]

Vietnam and the Philippines: Spoke-to-Spoke Alliances in the South China Sea

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: Philippines, South China Sea, Vietnam
As far as China’s designs in the South China Sea are concerned, there is little sign of compromise on the horizon.  Not only has China openly declared its commitment to “active defense” of its interests in adjacent waters, and also dangled the option of imposing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the area, but […]

China May Lose Friends in Southeast Asia

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: China, Malaysia, Philippines
Several Southeast Asian countries have expressed concern over Beijing’s belligerent behavior and aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. A litany of complaints of harassment of innocent fishermen by Chinese Coast Guard vessels has been reported by Vietnam and the Philippines, who are visibly angry with China. These incidents have led to stand-offs between maritime […]

A Fair and Effective Code of Conduct for the South China Sea

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, International Law, South China Sea
In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) that promised to “enhance favourable conditions for a peaceful and durable solution of differences and disputes among countries concerned.” Unfortunately, thirteen years on, the claimant countries are no closer to a solution for any of the […]

Stirred but Not Shaken: Sri Lanka’s Rebalancing Act

By | June 18, 2015 | Categories: Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka
Shortly after President Maithripala Sirisena’s surprise victory in Sri Lanka’s January Presidential election, the new leader suspended one of the largest Chinese-led infrastructure investments in the country—the $1.5 billion Colombo Port City—and caught the Chinese government off guard. Seemingly in denial, Chinese officials and the media echo chamber downplayed this move as a minor speed […]

Dragon Tracks: Emerging Chinese Access Points in the Indian Ocean Region

By and | June 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Indian Ocean
With six-plus-years of Chinese Gulf of Aden anti-piracy operations and China’s first submarine deployments to the Indian Ocean, considering possible support facilities for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) isn’t just for those theorizing a “String of Pearls” anymore. The U.S. Department of Defense itself forecasts that within the […]

Diplomacy Changes, Construction Continues: New Images of Mischief and Subi Reefs

By | June 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, South China Sea, Spratly Islands
On June 16, 2015, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang announced that “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He went on to note that after land reclamation on existing features was complete, China would continue to […]

China’s Land Reclamation Announcement: A Change in Message, Not in Policy

By , , , and | June 17, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, South China Sea
Q1: What has China announced about its land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands? A1: On June 16, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang announced that “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He noted […]

China’s Claims are Unambiguously Ambiguous

By | June 16, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, South China Sea
In the first paragraph of his recent AMTI article, Zheng Zhihua essentially conflates two issues–questions of sovereignty over islands and questions of jurisdiction over resources and the boundaries delimiting them–when he says: A few international observers also accuse China of deliberately obscuring its territorial claims in the South China Sea by using terms not found […]

Massive Island-Building and International Law

By | June 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation
Within the short span of a year, China’s rapid construction of artificial islands in the disputed Spratlys has radically changed the geographical and security landscapes in the South China Sea. This island construction has so far created over eight million square metres of real estate in the open sea, outstripping other countries’ reclamation activities by […]

President Aquino’s Visit to Tokyo Boosts Philippine-Japan Partnership in Maritime Security

By | June 10, 2015 | Categories: Japan, Philippines
President Benigo Aquino III’s first state visit to Japan reflected the increasing tempo of security cooperation between these two U.S. allies that are facing a common security challenge in their maritime domains—China’s maritime expansion. President Aquino met Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to discuss how they can strengthen their countries’ strategic partnership in the face of […]

The Temperature in Canberra as the South China Sea Boils

By | June 4, 2015 | Categories: Australia, International Law, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea
By various accounts, policy is firming up in Australia on what to do about the South China Sea – specifically, whether Canberra should take an unambiguous stand on the destabilising impact of China’s island-building activities. Australian policymakers are not fooled by the surface calm with which discussions concluded at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. […]

Carter on the South China Sea: Committed and (Mostly) Clear

By | June 3, 2015 | Categories: Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue on May 30 amounted to a robust, but measured, defense of the United States’ rebalance to the Asia Pacific and its commitment to remain a Pacific power. The speech covered a broad spectrum of U.S. commitments to the region—economic, political, and security—before concluding with an enthusiastic […]

What is Japan’s Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative?

By | June 3, 2015 | Categories: China, Japan, Shangri La Dialogue, United States
Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani proposed a “Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative” (SDI) at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. To build foundation for deeper security collaboration with regional partners, Nakatani proposed crisis management though the promotion of common rules and law in the maritime and air domains, maritime and air security through the enhancement of regional […]

In Defense of Facts in the South China Sea

By | June 2, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s address at this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue was generally well received by conference attendees and Asia-security watchers. A few critics have argued that Carter was “just talk.” What none have noted, however, is the fact that the Secretary’s remarks were the latest installation in a series of moves by the administration […]

Showdown at Shangri-La: Confronting China’s Maritime Ambitions

By | June 2, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, Shangri La Dialogue, United States
China is far from a monolithic power. Its rapid ascent has transformed it into both a centripetal force of integration as well as a centrifugal force of fragmentation. Earlier this year, China managed to pull off a major strategic coup against the United States (U.S.) by astutely convincing almost all relevant economies in Asia and […]