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Five years after an international arbitration court in the Hague ruled that the majority of China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis or validity, much has changed in the regional environment—but not in a positive way. The tribunal award had been expected to exert global diplomatic pressure on China to […]

President Joseph Biden’s victory in last year’s elections was warmly welcomed across Southeast Asia, a vital region at the heart of a brewing new Cold War. Earlier this year, the annual ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute survey showed that almost two-thirds of Southeast Asian respondents expressed their preference for the United States over China, a jump in […]

Over the last two decades, Malaysia has made concerted efforts toward modernizing its navy. The 15 to 5 Transformation Programme has been the basis of the Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN)’s recent restructuring agenda. This program focuses on acquiring new ships to replace aging ones, reducing cost and logistics problems, and building an efficient fleet, in […]

UN resolutions and a global pandemic were not sufficient to halt North Korea’s acquisition of new oil tankers last year, with Pyongyang adding two new members to its oil smuggling fleet. The new acquisitions follow on from another tanker transfer in 2019, demonstrating North Korea’s ability to draw upon several avenues to continue expanding its […]

On March 20, Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana officially informed the Philippine nation about the presence of around 220 Chinese fishing vessels moored in line at Whitsun Reef (called Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines). The reef is a wide boomerang-shaped shallow coral reef at the northeast end of Union Banks, located approximately 175 […]

Last month, the top leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States assembled for the first leader-level summit of the so-called “Quad.”  This dialogue partnership dates to 2007 and is built on a foundation laid during the cooperative response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. After wallowing in diplomatic doldrums, the recurring ministerial-level events […]

On its surface, the situation in the South China Sea has not changed much compared to that before the passage of China’s Coast Guard Law, which took effect on February 1, 2021. China is still using grey zone tactics to scare away fishers and harass resource exploration projects from other territorial claimants in the South […]

Whitstun Reef, named Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines after the late composer of the Philippine national anthem, is becoming a new flashpoint in the South China Sea. The massing of about 220 Chinese fishing vessels in the reef in the past several weeks raises worries about China’s growing activities in the contested sea. The […]

Since taking office, Joseph Biden’s administration has overseen a renaissance in American commitment to multilateral diplomacy. In its first month in office, the new American leadership has embarked on a global charm offensive to restore frayed international ties following four years of Trumpian unilateralism and protectionism. Within a single week, President Biden held crucial talks […]

The bellicose tone emanating from Beijing in the last couple years has led to a pooling of resources by some other countries in the region, notably India, Japan, the United States, and Australia.  This can be seen in the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, in November 2017. This new version of the […]

Beijing’s South China Sea moves have ramped up with the passing of a law allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to fire on what it identifies as illegal foreign vessels in waters under its jurisdiction. By virtue of China’s nine-dash line claim, this law applies to the entire South China Sea. Given that China’s claims […]

On February 12, President Rodrigo Duterte, in anguish, finally admitted the importance of the Philippines-U.S. alliance and the need to renegotiate with Washington the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). The statement marked a significant shift in Duterte’s rhetoric on the matter from a year ago, when he pushed for abrogation of the VFA despite the […]

If there is a single phrase that best captures President-elect Joseph Biden’s still-nebulous foreign policy doctrine, it is this: “America is back”. In one of his most revealing interviews since the November elections, the incoming U.S. president made it clear that under his administration, “America’s going to reassert its role in the world and be […]

The Philippines’ interest in purchasing India’s BrahMos cruise missile has thrown a spotlight on the growing security ties between Manila and New Delhi. The acquisition of the supersonic anti-ship missile, which can be mounted on multiple platforms, would signal the arrival of Delhi as a new security partner for the Southeast Asian country. Not only […]

In 2007, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe noted in a landmark speech before the Indian Parliament titled “Confluence of the Two Seas” that “the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity.” The recent ending of Exercise Malabar 2020 marks the beginning of a […]

The South China Sea is an important maritime area for Malaysia. Besides being connected to the world’s major east-west trade routes, Malaysia is one of the claimant states of the Spratly Islands. The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN), however, is facing a growing mismatch between its naval capabilities and its interests in addressing maritime challenges in […]

On October 15, 2020, President Rodrigo Duterte announced the lifting of the six-year moratorium on oil and natural gas exploration at Reed Bank (Recto Bank). The previous administration of President Benigno Aquino imposed the ban on energy exploration in the face of China’s coercive actions in this part of the South China Sea. In March […]

The first standalone ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), hosted by Tokyo early this month, raised expectations about the role the four-member group will play in the fast-changing Indo-Pacific strategic landscape. India’s invitation for Australia to join the 2020 Malabar exercises next month transformed what began as U.S.-India maritime drills in 1992 into […]

Territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea have been a major irritant in Philippines–China relations. When Rodrigo Duterte became president in 2016, a policy decision to underscore pragmatism in relations with China and opt for a moderated approach to dispute settlement in the South China Sea became clear. In November 2018, China and […]

(Photo: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan) Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has a tough act to follow. For almost a decade, his predecessor and former boss, Shinzo Abe, played a pivotal role in revamping Japan’s foreign and defense policy. Some would even credit the former Japanese leader as the chief architect of the “Indo-Pacific” […]

On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security added 24 Chinese companies to the Entity List for their activities in the South China Sea. The bureau targeted these entities specifically for “their role in helping the Chinese military construct and militarize the internationally condemned artificial islands in the South China […]

This week, the U.S. government for the first time imposed economic penalties on Chinese businesses for their behavior in the South China Sea. The Commerce Department placed 24 Chinese companies on the Entity List. The list restricts exports of certain goods to companies and individuals that threaten U.S. national security or foreign policy priorities. According […]

China’s maritime encroachments in the South China Sea continue unabated amid Covid-19. China’s infringement upon the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of littoral states such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as its conducting of naval drills in disputed waters in July have reflected its intransigence in adhering to the United Nations Convention on the […]

The China-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative recently published a commentary, which criticized the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Freedom of Navigation (FON) Report for 2019.  This commentary was authored by Ching Chang, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies in Taipei. It attempts to discredit the DOD FON Report, alleging […]

“Are you with us?” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte once dared former U.S. ambassador Philip Goldberg on the question of South China Sea. Survey after survey has shown that the vast majority of Filipinos see the United States as their most important international partner. This should come as no surprise, given America’s role as relatively benign […]

One consequence of the recent standoff between India and China in the Himalayas has been a re-examination of the role of the Quadrilateral Framework (hereafter, Quad) as an “effective instrument of dissuasion and moderation.” The foreign, security, and economic policies of Australia, as the southern bookend of the Quad, are receiving renewed attention in India. […]

In the early dawn of July 12, 2020, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) of the Philippines issued a statement on the fourth anniversary of the issuance of the arbitral award on the South China Sea dispute. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin declared that the arbitration case initiated and won by the Philippines versus China […]

China has not only attempted to change facts on the ground in the South China Sea, but is also seeking to gradually change the world’s mind regarding its claims there. This battle over perceptions has not received adequate attention. China’s Mapfare The nine-dash line is a representation of China’s expansive claims in the South China […]

Yesterday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced an important shift in U.S. declaratory policy on the South China Sea. This morning, Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell elaborated further during remarks at CSIS’s annual South China Sea Conference. The press statement from Pompeo listed specific Chinese maritime claims the United States considers illegal. The statement […]

The potential for a quadrilateral Exercise Malabar has risen fast in the post-Covid-19 order. This comes on the back of the upgrade of the India-Australia strategic partnership to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” at the June 4 virtual summit between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Scott Morrison. Australian High Commissioner to India Barry O’Farrell ignited hopes […]