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During my visit to Hainan last December, the mood among Chinese officials was largely somber. Despite the triumphant launch of the country’s first indigenously-built aircraft carrier, attended by no less than President Xi Jinping, there was a profound sense of foreboding. The Chinese leader warned of  the “grey rhinos” of domestic economic imbalances and “black […]

China’s growing presence and activities in the South China Sea even amid a pandemic provide ample motivation for the Philippine decision to suspend the termination of its 20-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States. There are several other factors, however, that may also be at play. Manila wants a reset in the defense […]

For the last several months the world has been shocked by the Covid-19 outbreak. Though first and foremost a global public health problem, its impact has extended far beyond. Economists, sociologists, psychologists, and experts from all fields have begun to analyze the changes the pandemic has wrought in their areas. Chief among these secondary effects […]

Hydrocarbon exploration by Malaysia’s Petronas recently triggered a three-way standoff in the South China Sea that lasted nearly six months. It only ended in mid-May upon the departure of the West Capella, the drillship at the heart of the matter. Tensions peaked in April with the deployment of a Chinese survey ship to Malaysia’s exclusive […]

April 23 marked the 71st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As U.S.-China frictions continue and great power competition becomes the central focus of U.S. defense strategy, the question of just how far the PLAN has come in its development has become critical. Does the PLAN currently pose a threat […]

A series of recent reports from the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) at Peking University’s Institute of Ocean Research have arbitrarily labeled Vietnamese fishermen as “maritime militia” based on limited AIS data without further supporting evidence. But without a clear understanding of the Vietnamese maritime militia, such arguments are at best whataboutism […]

On April 18, China’s State Council announced its decision to establish two new districts in Sansha City, a prefecture-level city (地级市) headquartered on Woody Island which governs the bulk of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Some observers may dismiss the creation of these districts as a symbolic but ultimately inconsequential demonstration of […]

On April 22, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) filed two diplomatic protests against China, accusing it of violating international law and Philippine sovereignty. According to Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr., the notes sent to the Chinese Embassy in Manila were on two different issues. The first concerned a February 17 incident […]

On April 18, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs unilaterally announced the establishment of two new administrative structures in the South China Sea: Xisha district, covering the Paracel Islands and Macclesfield Bank, and Nansha district, covering the Spartly Islands, both of which are also claimed by Vietnam. The new administrative districts are to be under the […]

Malaysia’s recent submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf has triggered a note-verbale debate between claimants in the South China Sea. After China and the Philippines, Vietnam is the latest to join the debate with a note to protest not only Malaysia’s claims, but China’s as well. Vietnam’s note verbale, dated […]

In November 2015, against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines and Vietnam established a strategic partnership. A vocal critic of Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea at the time, Manila pursued a dual approach  by bolstering its defense capabilities and enhancing its military alliance with Washington through […]

Only weeks ago, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s shocking decision to unilaterally scrap the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) dominated conversations among Asia hands. In fact, the topic repeatedly popped up during my talks in the United States in late-February. However, with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic tightening its grip on nations across the world, conventional wisdom […]

The utility of the Indo-Pacific as a geo-strategic concept remains the subject of debate, particularly in the “Quad” countries; the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. A series of views published in the Australian National University’s East Asia Forum last month provides several perspectives in this continuing debate. The first questions U.S. strategy in extending […]

On April 4, Vietnam lodged an official protest with China, accusing it of sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat in the Paracel Islands. The spokesperson for China’s coastguard argued that the Vietnamese fishing boat sank after ramming into a China Coast Guard vessel. He also warned that China would move to enhance its control of fishing […]

The second visit in two years of a U.S. aircraft carrier to Vietnam turns a page in the relationship between the former Cold War nemeses. Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill along with their over 5,000 officers and crew concluded a five-day visit to Da Nang early this month, marking […]

While China and the United States’ significant nuclear forces makes it hard to imagine a future war between them, the possibility of localized military conflicts over the East China Sea, Taiwan, or the South China Sea cannot be ruled out. With the Trump administration’s release of the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Indo-Pacific […]

Recently, international observers have been puzzled to see Malaysia undertaking oil and gas operations in the overlapping extended continental shelf area defined by its 2009 joint submission with Vietnam to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). As reported by AMTI, the West Capella, a drillship contracted by Malaysian national oil and […]

If recent developments are any indication, the South China Sea will remain an intense flashpoint for the rest of this year. Two things are especially worth following. First is the degree of importance China will assign to the South China Sea given its myriad domestic and foreign policy priorities. Second is how far neighboring littoral […]

Despite pleas from several senior Philippine senators to reconsider his plan to abrogate the Philippine-U.S. Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), President Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly decided to scrap the 20-year old treaty. According to his presidential spokesperson, Duterte has already ordered his executive secretary to instruct Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin to serve the notice of termination […]

Malaysia is surrounded by busy sea lanes, including the Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea, and the Sulu and Sulawesi seas. These all function as maritime gateways for international trade flows vital to the nation’s economic life. In the interest of utilizing and protecting these sea lines of communication, the government has deployed various […]

During a recent book talk in Washington, DC, a former U.S. ambassador asked me about the supposed dearth of resistance among Southeast Asian countries against Chinese revanchist ambitions. After all, China not only claims much of the South China Sea as its “blue national soil,” but has also deployed an ever-greater armada of paramilitary and […]

One of the big changes in the second term of Indonesia’s President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was the departure in October 2019 of the popular minister for maritime affairs and fisheries, Susi Pudjiastuti. Susi is best known for cracking down on illegal fishing with a high-profile policy of blowing-up and sinking foreign fishing vessels. But there […]

As the 2020s begin, the world can breathe a collective sigh of relief that the United States has so far avoided a major military crisis with China. Over the past decade, China challenged the lawful rights of U.S. partners and allies in the western Pacific, built massive artificial island bases in the disputed Spratly Islands, […]

As countries in the Indo-Pacific continue to deepen maritime collaborations between friends, partners, and allies, the island territories in the region are well-positioned to offer tremendous support and strategic leverage to India and its partners. Island territories in particular facilitate a greater maritime presence, help generate a common picture for maritime domain awareness (MDA), and […]

Vietnam’s long-awaited defense white paper was finally released late last month. One of the most important official documents on defense and military strategy, it elaborates on the overall principles and guidelines for protecting the Vietnamese homeland for the next 10 years. Given the rapidly evolving security challenges Vietnam has been faced with in the last […]

Ahead of its much-anticipated chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year, and amid a months-long naval showdown in the South China Sea, Vietnam has hinted at the possibility of legal warfare against China. Vietnamese deputy foreign minister Le Hoai Trung openly warned in early November that diplomacy isn’t the only tool […]

On November 4, the ASEAN chair’s gavel was passed to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc of Vietnam at the closing ceremony of the grouping’s annual summit in Bangkok. Vietnam will serve as the chair of ASEAN, the most important international organization in Southeast Asia, through 2020. This will be a crucial year for the grouping […]

Indonesian president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo first came into office in 2014 promising to turn the country into the “Global Maritime Fulcrum” (GMF)—a force between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Consisting of both domestic and foreign policy elements, many had hoped that the GMF would serve as Indonesia’s first actionable grand strategy in decades. Jokowi presented […]

Vietnam’s Need to Become a Proactive Middle Power The most frequently-asked question from U.S. scholars and experts visiting Vietnam these days is, “What does Vietnam want from the United States when it comes to the South China Sea?” Given the rapid improvement of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership, especially in defense and security cooperation, this question […]

While Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s controversial China policy has understandably attracted considerable attention, few have taken his strategic pivot to Russia seriously enough. Instead, even some senior Filipino officials view burgeoning ties with Moscow as nothing but a reflection of Duterte’s personal fascination with Russia and his famed “bromance” with Vladimir Putin. But reaching out […]