Why the Philippines’ Case Should Pass the Jurisdiction and Admissibility Tests

By | July 23, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Philippines has been widely applauded for bringing the first ever arbitration case relating to the South China Sea disputes before an UNCLOS Arbitration Tribunal, but it still needs to clear the three hurdles of jurisdiction, admissibility and merit. In other words, Manila needs to prove that its case falls within the Tribunal’s jurisdiction, that […]

The Philippines between Scylla and Charybdis at The Hague

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Annex VII arbitral tribunal heard oral arguments from the Philippines last week on the issues of jurisdiction and admissibility of claims in the case it launched against China. Despite high hopes placed on Manila’s cause, these issues remain the most formidable legal obstacles to be surmounted. While the Philippine Memorial has not been made […]

The Battle of The Hague: Philippines v. China in the South China Sea

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, Philippines, South China Sea
The Philippines’ lawfare (legal warfare) against China has reached a critical juncture. More than two years after initiating compulsory arbitration against China, the Southeast Asian country faces the crucial task of proving that the Arbitral Tribunal, formed under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), has the mandate […]

What Makes an Island? Land Reclamation and the South China Sea Arbitration

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, Philippines
We have all heard about land reclamation by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea, particularly the southeastern region known as the Spratly Group. But much less is being said about what the Permanent Court of Arbitration just finished considering for the past week: are artificial islands really islands? According to […]

Taiwan’s Response to the Philippines-PRC South China Sea Arbitration

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea, Taiwan
On December 8, 2014, the Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands deposited with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), the Registry for the South China Sea arbitral proceedings, a Note Verbale. The PCA was asked to forward the Position Paper of the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Matters of Jurisdiction in the […]

The Post-Hearing Reality in the South China Sea Arbitration Case

By | July 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Philippines, South China Sea
The Hague hearing on jurisdiction and admissibility of the South China Sea arbitration case has come to an end on July 13 after a weeklong process without China’s participation. The hearing has become a heated headline for medias, governments, and scholars for the past week. Questions include whether the Arbitral Tribunal will issue a decision […]

Sophistry and Bad Messaging in the South China Sea

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: China, Malaysia, Philippines, South China Sea, Vietnam
Chinese authorities, as well as sympathetic writers, have in recent months sought to deflect criticism of China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys by insisting that Beijing is merely copying what other claimants have done for years. According to this narrative, every claimant is as guilty as Beijing of altering the status of features in the […]

China May Lose Friends in Southeast Asia

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: China, Malaysia, Philippines
Several Southeast Asian countries have expressed concern over Beijing’s belligerent behavior and aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. A litany of complaints of harassment of innocent fishermen by Chinese Coast Guard vessels has been reported by Vietnam and the Philippines, who are visibly angry with China. These incidents have led to stand-offs between maritime […]

A Fair and Effective Code of Conduct for the South China Sea

By | July 1, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, International Law, South China Sea
In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) that promised to “enhance favourable conditions for a peaceful and durable solution of differences and disputes among countries concerned.” Unfortunately, thirteen years on, the claimant countries are no closer to a solution for any of the […]

Dragon Tracks: Emerging Chinese Access Points in the Indian Ocean Region

By and | June 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Indian Ocean
With six-plus-years of Chinese Gulf of Aden anti-piracy operations and China’s first submarine deployments to the Indian Ocean, considering possible support facilities for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) isn’t just for those theorizing a “String of Pearls” anymore. The U.S. Department of Defense itself forecasts that within the […]

Diplomacy Changes, Construction Continues: New Images of Mischief and Subi Reefs

By | June 18, 2015 | Categories: China, Land Reclamation, South China Sea, Spratly Islands
On June 16, 2015, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang announced that “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He went on to note that after land reclamation on existing features was complete, China would continue to […]

China’s Land Reclamation Announcement: A Change in Message, Not in Policy

By , , , and | June 17, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, South China Sea
Q1: What has China announced about its land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands? A1: On June 16, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang announced that “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He noted […]

China’s Claims are Unambiguously Ambiguous

By | June 16, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation, South China Sea
In the first paragraph of his recent AMTI article, Zheng Zhihua essentially conflates two issues–questions of sovereignty over islands and questions of jurisdiction over resources and the boundaries delimiting them–when he says: A few international observers also accuse China of deliberately obscuring its territorial claims in the South China Sea by using terms not found […]

Massive Island-Building and International Law

By | June 15, 2015 | Categories: China, International Law, Land Reclamation
Within the short span of a year, China’s rapid construction of artificial islands in the disputed Spratlys has radically changed the geographical and security landscapes in the South China Sea. This island construction has so far created over eight million square metres of real estate in the open sea, outstripping other countries’ reclamation activities by […]

What is Japan’s Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative?

By | June 3, 2015 | Categories: China, Japan, Shangri La Dialogue, United States
Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani proposed a “Shangri-La Dialogue Initiative” (SDI) at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. To build foundation for deeper security collaboration with regional partners, Nakatani proposed crisis management though the promotion of common rules and law in the maritime and air domains, maritime and air security through the enhancement of regional […]

In Defense of Facts in the South China Sea

By | June 2, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s address at this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue was generally well received by conference attendees and Asia-security watchers. A few critics have argued that Carter was “just talk.” What none have noted, however, is the fact that the Secretary’s remarks were the latest installation in a series of moves by the administration […]

Showdown at Shangri-La: Confronting China’s Maritime Ambitions

By | June 2, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, Shangri La Dialogue, United States
China is far from a monolithic power. Its rapid ascent has transformed it into both a centripetal force of integration as well as a centrifugal force of fragmentation. Earlier this year, China managed to pull off a major strategic coup against the United States (U.S.) by astutely convincing almost all relevant economies in Asia and […]

Carter Defends the South China Sea at Shangri-La

By , and | June 1, 2015 | Categories: China, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
On Saturday morning at the Shangri-La defense dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter delivered a long-anticipated speech on security issues in Asia.  As tensions have mounted over China’s island building in the South China Sea, Carter has been one of the administration’s strongest voices, calling the militarization of the islands a challenge […]

The South China Sea at Shangri-La 2015: A Primer

By and | May 29, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, Japan, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
As delegates assemble for the 14th annual Asia Security Summit, better known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, regional tensions are running high over China’s island building in the South China Sea.  As the weekend summit gets under way, here are the issues to watch. Stormy Seas and Skies: In the last several months, the region and […]

Highlights from Shangri-La Dialogue 2014

By | May 28, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, East China Sea, Japan, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea, United States
Highlights from Shangri-la Dialogue 2014. Video credit: IISS. The 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue kicks off on Friday, May 29, in Singapore and runs through the weekend.   The defense summit will feature a keynote speech by Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsein Loong and plenary remarks by U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, Japanese Minister of Defense Gen […]

Moving Toward Casus Belli? Interpreting Recent Chinese Activity in the South China Sea

By | May 21, 2015 | Categories: ASEAN, China, South China Sea, United States
Satellite imagery of the South China Sea has established  that over the previous twelve months, China has expanded its presence there by up to 1500 acres. The Chinese have been actively reclaiming land at the following reefs: Cuarteron, Fiery Cross, Gaven, Hughes, Subi, and the Union reefs (Johnson South and Johnson North reefs). One perspective […]

China’s Relations with Southeast Asia – USCC Hearing

By | May 15, 2015 | Categories: China, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, United States
On Wednesday May 13 the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission held hearings on China’s Relations with Southeast Asia. The first panel (40:27 – 2:22:01 above) reviewed the security dimensions of China’s relations with Southeast Asia. Testimony was issued by AMTI director Mira Rapp-Hooper, CSIS Senior Adviser for Asia Bonnie Glaser, the Center for a New American Security’s Patrick Cronin, and Chin-Hao […]

Safeguarding American Interests in the East and South China Seas – SFRC Hearing

By | May 15, 2015 | Categories: China, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, United States
On Wednesday, May 13, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Russel and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs David Shear testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on American interests in and strategy for the East and South China Seas. Team AMTI has identified some choice […]