Duterte, Trump, and Manila’s Changing Foreign Policy
The surprising election of Donald Trump has raised hopes for a less fraught relationship between Washington and Manila in the near future.
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The Strategic Significance of the Taiwan-Japan Maritime Affairs Dialogue
Taiwan and Japan's shared problems and interests as fellow maritime countries could help the two sides to deepen their “quasi maritime alliance partnership.”
Podcast: China’s New Spratly Island Defenses
Admiral Michael McDevitt (Ret.) of the Center for Naval Analyses and Cortez Cooper of the RAND Corporation sit down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to look at new imagery of Chinese point defenses on the Spratly Islands.
Is South Korea’s Use of Force Against Chinese Fishing Vessels Illegal?
Continuing clashes between Chinese fishing vessels and the Korean Coast Guard should be of concern to all countries in the region due to the complex problems they pose.
Taking Stock of the Alliance as the Philippines Prepares for Trump
Key agreements and relationships remain in place for a U.S.-Philippine alliance reset under the incoming Donald Trump administration, but there are reasons to be skeptical about whether the relationship can be put back on an upward trajectory.
India Needs More Than Cautious Statements on the South China Sea
China’s actions since the South China Sea arbitration ruling show that India needs to take a stronger line if it wants to achieve its objectives. Given the importance of the principles at stake, it would be in India’s best interests to take a more forward-looking and forward-leaning approach to the South China Sea dispute.
President Duterte’s Backtracking Prompts Hope for Compromise
Security analysts have questioned whether U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation can survive six years of a Philippine president seemingly driven by anti-Western ideology. Those fears should be somewhat allayed, as Duterte has walked back some of his earlier pronouncements and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has declared that the Philippine-U.S. security alliance will not be abrogated and that the EDCA will stay in place.
Mischief Reef: President Trump’s First FONOP?
The election is barely over, but the pressure will soon be on the new administration and its national security team to demonstrate U.S. resolve to support international rules and norms in the South China Sea.
Japan: India’s Unique Maritime Partner
The annual summit between Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, held on November 11 in Tokyo, once again underscored the importance of maritime security in the bilateral relationship. Describing the relationship as “unique” and “special,” the two leaders talked of a greater convergence in their visions for Asia. While there have been developments in almost all areas of the relationship, maritime security under Modi and Abe has become one of the most visible areas of cooperation in the strategic partnership. By addressing strategic concerns beyond the realm of security cooperation, the leaders have found a unique and constructive way to collaborate in the Indian Ocean and beyond.
Vietnam’s Foreign Policy: In Search of a New Delicate Balance
Developments in the international affairs of Southeast Asia are generating considerable uncertainty and doubt among regional players, including Vietnam. Seeking a delicate balance between great powers, and among other regional states, is a necessity for Hanoi to keep Vietnam’s national interests and relationships with other countries undamaged.
The Arbitral Award and the Future Management of the South China Sea Disputes
The July 12 arbitral tribunal ruling was the first significant international law decision on maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Some commentators suggest that the tribunal’s ruling could be a game changer for managing or resolving maritime disputes in the highly-disputed waterway.
Duterte’s Uncertain China Gamble
Breaking with tradition, the Philippines’ controversial leader Rodrigo Duterte chose China for the first major state visit of his presidency. Traditionally, Filipino leaders have visited “all-weather” friends such as Washington or Tokyo before Beijing. This time, however, the Filipino president decided to postpone a scheduled visit to Japan in favor of China, while signaling strategic […]
Russia’s Tactics and Strategy in the South China Sea
With Russia deep in the trenches of global power competition, the contours of its long-term interests in the South China Sea are perhaps starting to take shape.
Podcast: Justice Antonio Carpio on the South China Sea and Limits of Presidential Power in the Philippines
Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court of the Philippines sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss constitutional requirements for any joint fisheries or oil and gas deal in the South China Sea, as well as the limits of President Rodrigo Duterte’s power to change treaty commitments.
Of Claims and Freedoms: Diverging Perspectives on the South China Sea
Power differentials between states affect how they view and respond to the South China Sea disputes. Small powers largely see them as a clash of unilateral territorial and maritime claims over all or part of the semi-enclosed sea, whereas big powers frame them in a more strategic manner – a contest for control over a critical international waterway. Small powers focus on immediate and direct concerns like resource access, whereas big powers stress universal freedoms of navigation and overflight. Lumping claims and freedoms together muddles and complicates the resolution of South China Sea disputes. Disaggregating them, however, may allow for opportunities to tackle part of the dispute separately.
President Duterte Maintains Philippine-Japanese Partnership as He “Pivots” to China
Amid signs of Duterte rejecting the United States and pivoting fully toward China, the ongoing warmth of the Philippines' security relationship with Japan—China’s greatest rival in East Asia—hints at a greater balancing act within Duterte’s foreign policy vision.
The EU, the South China Sea, and China’s Successful Wedge Strategy
China’s economic statecraft has softened the resolve of some EU member-states and groomed them to advocate Beijing’s position on the South China Sea. The slow erosion of Europe’s values as well as inability to come together and speak with one voice on rule of law contributes to the unraveling fabric of global governance. Beijing’s successful wedge […]
Podcast: Decoding Duterte’s First 100 Days
As President Rodrigo Duterte completes his first 100 days as leader of the Philippines, the former mayor has caused ripples by questioning the foundation of the alliance between the U.S. and its former colony. He's known as a "colorful" character, so should we take his comments, and those of his cabinet, at face value? AMTI Director Gregory Poling weighs in, in conversation with Colm Quinn.
Manila’s Pyrrhic Victory: ASEAN in Disarray Over the South China Sea
Once celebrated as a model multilateral organization and an agent of positive regional change, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in disarray. On July 12, a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a judgment on the South China Sea that is widely seen as a victory for ASEAN […]
Podcast: Setting the Historic Record Straight in the South China Sea, with Bill Hayton
Following his public discussion about the very modern origin of China’s claims in the South China Sea, Bill Hayton sits down with AMTI Director Greg Poling for a deeper dive on how the topic continues to complicate the dispute. He summarizes how China’s claims emerged in the early 20th century, outlines their subsequent expansion, and […]
Event: The Modern Origins of China’s South China Sea Claim with Bill Hayton
On September 22, AMTI and the CSIS Southeast Asia Program hosted Bill Hayton, associate fellow at Chatham House, for a discussion of the muddled origins of China’s claims to the South China Sea in the early twentieth century. He showed evidence that China’s claim to islands first emerged in 1909 and was further developed after […]
The Spratlys: A Geopolitics of Secret Maritime Sea-Lanes
Except for the work of a few analysts like Carlyle Thayer, Daniel Schaeffer, and Leszek Buszynski, the role of bathymetry and submarine warfare in the Spratly Islands dispute has been largely ignored. To better understand this aspect of the dispute, it is necessary to dispel the myth of the Spratlys as an area of shallow […]
Podcast: Collapsing Fisheries in the South China Sea
In this joint CogitAsia and AMTI episode we tackle the topic of overfishing in the South China Sea. Ahead of the 2016 Our Ocean summit in Washington, Rachael Bale, a reporter with National Geographic’s Special Investigations Unit covering wildlife crime, joins to share her insights into the collapsing fishstocks in the South China Sea. Rachael […]
Are Maritime Law Enforcement Forces Destabilizing Asia?
The following is an excerpt from the latest feature by CSIS’s ChinaPower project. Maritime disputes in the South China Sea present an array of potential flashpoints between countries with overlapping claims. In recent years, many of these countries have mobilized government vessels traditionally used for maritime law enforcement to reinforce their territorial claims. Key among […]
Duterte’s Colorful Diplomatic Debut
The Philippines’ newly minted president couldn’t have asked for a more high-profile diplomatic debut when he attended this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, which saw the participation of the leaders from across the Asia Pacific, including the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and India, along with the secretary-general of the United Nations. […]
Vietnam’s Need for a Post-Arbitration Policy
The July 12 judgement of the tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding Manila’s case against Beijing’s South China Sea claims has reshaped the geostrategic landscape in Southeast Asia. But surprisingly, Vietnam has only issued a brief statement on the verdict, with Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Le Hai Binh saying that “Vietnam welcomes […]
Can Ramos Break the Ice in Philippines-China Relations?
Consistent with his campaign promise, the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte has stepped up efforts to mend ties with China, despite the latter’s flagrant rejection of the Philippines’ recent law-fare victory at The Hague. Duterte has deputized no less than former president Fidel Ramos, who also dealt with Chinese maritime assertiveness in the mid-1990s, to […]
A Looming Environmental Crisis in the South China Sea
Of all the “strategic” challenges confronting the Asia-Pacific region, none is as underrated as the destruction of the marine ecosystem. The South China Sea’s status as a critical waterway draws attention away from the fact that littoral Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most diverse global marine bio-systems, hosting 76 percent of the world’s […]
Misinterpretation and Consequences of Arbitration: A Chinese Perspective
When the tribunal deciding the South China Sea arbitration case brought by the Philippines against China issued its award on July 12, the international media seemed impressed by the landslide decision in favor of the Philippines on almost all of its claims. Many reported that the ruling was a rebuke of China’s sovereignty claims, but […]
Keeping the Peace in Post-Arbitration
The July 12 verdict of a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration represented a watershed moment in the tumultuous history of the South China Sea dispute.