One Year of AMTI


The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative is celebrating its first year. From ongoing land reclamation in the Spratly Islands to rising tensions between China and the United States and an ongoing standoff between Beijing and Tokyo in the East China Sea, the last 12 months only reinforced the need for greater transparency in Asia’s contested waters. AMTI remains committed to the belief that sunshine is the best antiseptic and most effective policeman. With Asian maritime tensions likely to rise further in 2016, a commitment to transparency will only grow more necessary.

Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan Chair at CSIS, Lieutenant General Chip Gregson, senior adviser at Avascent International, and Andrew Shearer, former national security adviser to the Australian government and a visiting fellow with CSIS, recently joined AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss Asia’s contested waters. Listen below as the three experts’ give their takes on the growing threat posed by maritime disputes in Asia, the increasing stakes for the United States and regional partners, and what to expect in 2016 and beyond.

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The previous 12 months have seen startling changes to the status quo in maritime Asia, and whether in the Indian Ocean, South and East China Seas, or beyond, AMTI has worked to bring greater transparency and understanding to these complex developments. The following are some of the top narratives that developed over the last year in maritime Asia, all of which bear watching in the year to come.

 

 

Land Reclamation


The most visible change within maritime Asia in 2014-2015 was the stunning reclamation and construction in the disputed Spratly Islands. When AMTI launched in November 2014, only a few of China’s occupied features (Gaven, Cuarteron, Hughes, and Johnson) reefs had begun to resemble islands after substantial dredging and reclamation. Since then China’s footprint in the Spratlys has expanded to cover seven islands, three of which already do or soon will host military-grade airstrips. These developments have made headlines across the globe and have had significant implications for U.S. and other nations’ strategies in the region.

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Philippines v. China Arbitration


In January 2013, the Philippines initiated arbitral proceedings against China via a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Manila is challenging what it perceives to be Beijing’s excessive claims in the South China Sea. China has refused to participate, but that has not stopped the judges from moving forward with a case that could have far-reaching implications for maritime disputes in Asia and around the world. The tribunal decided on October 29, 2015, that it has jurisdiction in the case, and a final ruling is expected sometime next year.

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Military Power


The conventional military power balance in East Asia has been changing with the rise of China. In response to Beijing’s increasing assertiveness, U.S. allies and partners are also increasing their capabilities, albeit at a slower rate. Security cooperation is growing rapidly between the United States and regional partners, and among Asian states, including Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

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Indian Ocean


The Indian Ocean is often overlooked in analyses of the Asia-Pacific littoral, but doing so increasingly ignores the changing realities in the region. Indian naval capabilities are rising and competition between Delhi and Beijing over China’s plans to boost its presence in the Indian Ocean increase the chances of future conflict. At the same time, India is taking an increasing interest in the South China Sea disputes, and increasing its security relationships with countries like Australia, Japan, and Vietnam. Recent resolutions of overlapping claims in the Indian Ocean also provide a hopeful counter-narrative to the seeming intractability of disputes in East Asia.

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High-Level Diplomacy


The previous year saw Asia’s maritime disputes, and the South China Sea in particular, kicked to the top of regional and global diplomatic agendas. During the visits to Washington of President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, among many other bilateral visits around the region, maritime issues featured prominently and important agreements were made that will help lay the strategic ground in Asia in the years to come. At the same time, multilateral fora like the Shangri-La Dialogue saw numerous Pacific powers make pledges towards maritime security efforts, while China stuck closely to its script on the South China Sea.

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U.S. Strategy


“Does the United States have a maritime strategy in Asia?” Developments in 2015 helped answer that question, if only partially. The Department of Defense released its Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy, which clarified U.S. intentions and challenges in the region. The U.S. Navy engaged in its first freedom of navigation operation in the Spratly Islands in years, challenging Chinese restrictions on transit near its artificial islands. When taken together with diplomatic efforts in countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, these and other developments helped reveal the trajectory of U.S. strategy in Asia’s disputed waters.

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