Rory Medcalf, Author at Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

The Temperature in Canberra as the South China Sea Boils

By Rory Medcalf | June 4, 2015 | Categories: Australia, International Law, Shangri La Dialogue, South China Sea

By various accounts, policy is firming up in Australia on what to do about the South China Sea – specifically, whether Canberra should take an unambiguous stand on the destabilising impact of China’s island-building activities. Australian policymakers are not fooled by the surface calm with which discussions concluded at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. […]

What’s in a CBM?: Watching for Direct and Indirect Measures of Confidence

By Rory Medcalf | February 4, 2015 | Categories: China, Confidence Building Measures, United States

It’s hard to imagine that the risk of war in Asia could hinge on something as pedestrian and mundane-sounding as “confidence-building measures” or CBMs. Yet this obscure piece of security terminology, originating during the Cold War, is now front and center in discussions of the future of U.S.-China strategic relations. Policymakers and military leaders in […]

A 2015 Resolution for Risk Reduction

By Rory Medcalf | December 23, 2014 | Categories: China, Japan, United States, Year in Review

In tracking Asia’s maritime tensions in 2015, what I will be looking for above all is evidence that China is actually following through on its newfound commitments to risk-reduction and crisis-management. For much of the time since Chinese maritime assertiveness increased, from 2009 onwards, the guiding attitude seemed to be that Chinese forces were willing […]

South China Sea Action at the East Asia Summit?

By Rory Medcalf | November 11, 2014 | Categories: East Asia Summit, South China Sea

The stakes in Asia’s maritime security tensions are high and getting higher. As each year the region moves closer to the global center of gravity in economic weight, military power and demographics, so too the consequences of any strategic breakdown among its powers become more grave. Accordingly, it is more important than ever to work […]