Category: AMTI Update

(Photo: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan) Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has a tough act to follow. For almost a decade, his predecessor and former boss, Shinzo Abe, played a pivotal role in revamping Japan’s foreign and defense policy. Some would even credit the former Japanese leader as the chief architect of the “Indo-Pacific” […]

On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security added 24 Chinese companies to the Entity List for their activities in the South China Sea. The bureau targeted these entities specifically for “their role in helping the Chinese military construct and militarize the internationally condemned artificial islands in the South China […]

This week, the U.S. government for the first time imposed economic penalties on Chinese businesses for their behavior in the South China Sea. The Commerce Department placed 24 Chinese companies on the Entity List. The list restricts exports of certain goods to companies and individuals that threaten U.S. national security or foreign policy priorities. According […]

China’s maritime encroachments in the South China Sea continue unabated amid Covid-19. China’s infringement upon the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of littoral states such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as its conducting of naval drills in disputed waters in July have reflected its intransigence in adhering to the United Nations Convention on the […]

The China-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative recently published a commentary, which criticized the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Freedom of Navigation (FON) Report for 2019.  This commentary was authored by Ching Chang, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies in Taipei. It attempts to discredit the DOD FON Report, alleging […]

“Are you with us?” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte once dared former U.S. ambassador Philip Goldberg on the question of South China Sea. Survey after survey has shown that the vast majority of Filipinos see the United States as their most important international partner. This should come as no surprise, given America’s role as relatively benign […]

One consequence of the recent standoff between India and China in the Himalayas has been a re-examination of the role of the Quadrilateral Framework (hereafter, Quad) as an “effective instrument of dissuasion and moderation.” The foreign, security, and economic policies of Australia, as the southern bookend of the Quad, are receiving renewed attention in India. […]

In the early dawn of July 12, 2020, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) of the Philippines issued a statement on the fourth anniversary of the issuance of the arbitral award on the South China Sea dispute. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin declared that the arbitration case initiated and won by the Philippines versus China […]

China has not only attempted to change facts on the ground in the South China Sea, but is also seeking to gradually change the world’s mind regarding its claims there. This battle over perceptions has not received adequate attention. China’s Mapfare The nine-dash line is a representation of China’s expansive claims in the South China […]

Yesterday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced an important shift in U.S. declaratory policy on the South China Sea. This morning, Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell elaborated further during remarks at CSIS’s annual South China Sea Conference. The press statement from Pompeo listed specific Chinese maritime claims the United States considers illegal. The statement […]

The potential for a quadrilateral Exercise Malabar has risen fast in the post-Covid-19 order. This comes on the back of the upgrade of the India-Australia strategic partnership to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” at the June 4 virtual summit between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Scott Morrison. Australian High Commissioner to India Barry O’Farrell ignited hopes […]

During my visit to Hainan last December, the mood among Chinese officials was largely somber. Despite the triumphant launch of the country’s first indigenously-built aircraft carrier, attended by no less than President Xi Jinping, there was a profound sense of foreboding. The Chinese leader warned of  the “grey rhinos” of domestic economic imbalances and “black […]

China’s growing presence and activities in the South China Sea even amid a pandemic provide ample motivation for the Philippine decision to suspend the termination of its 20-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States. There are several other factors, however, that may also be at play. Manila wants a reset in the defense […]

For the last several months the world has been shocked by the Covid-19 outbreak. Though first and foremost a global public health problem, its impact has extended far beyond. Economists, sociologists, psychologists, and experts from all fields have begun to analyze the changes the pandemic has wrought in their areas. Chief among these secondary effects […]

Hydrocarbon exploration by Malaysia’s Petronas recently triggered a three-way standoff in the South China Sea that lasted nearly six months. It only ended in mid-May upon the departure of the West Capella, the drillship at the heart of the matter. Tensions peaked in April with the deployment of a Chinese survey ship to Malaysia’s exclusive […]

April 23 marked the 71st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As U.S.-China frictions continue and great power competition becomes the central focus of U.S. defense strategy, the question of just how far the PLAN has come in its development has become critical. Does the PLAN currently pose a threat […]

A series of recent reports from the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) at Peking University’s Institute of Ocean Research have arbitrarily labeled Vietnamese fishermen as “maritime militia” based on limited AIS data without further supporting evidence. But without a clear understanding of the Vietnamese maritime militia, such arguments are at best whataboutism […]

On April 18, China’s State Council announced its decision to establish two new districts in Sansha City, a prefecture-level city (地级市) headquartered on Woody Island which governs the bulk of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. Some observers may dismiss the creation of these districts as a symbolic but ultimately inconsequential demonstration of […]

On April 22, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) filed two diplomatic protests against China, accusing it of violating international law and Philippine sovereignty. According to Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin Jr., the notes sent to the Chinese Embassy in Manila were on two different issues. The first concerned a February 17 incident […]

On April 18, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs unilaterally announced the establishment of two new administrative structures in the South China Sea: Xisha district, covering the Paracel Islands and Macclesfield Bank, and Nansha district, covering the Spartly Islands, both of which are also claimed by Vietnam. The new administrative districts are to be under the […]

Malaysia’s recent submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf has triggered a note-verbale debate between claimants in the South China Sea. After China and the Philippines, Vietnam is the latest to join the debate with a note to protest not only Malaysia’s claims, but China’s as well. Vietnam’s note verbale, dated […]

In November 2015, against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines and Vietnam established a strategic partnership. A vocal critic of Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea at the time, Manila pursued a dual approach  by bolstering its defense capabilities and enhancing its military alliance with Washington through […]

Only weeks ago, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s shocking decision to unilaterally scrap the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) dominated conversations among Asia hands. In fact, the topic repeatedly popped up during my talks in the United States in late-February. However, with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic tightening its grip on nations across the world, conventional wisdom […]

The utility of the Indo-Pacific as a geo-strategic concept remains the subject of debate, particularly in the “Quad” countries; the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. A series of views published in the Australian National University’s East Asia Forum last month provides several perspectives in this continuing debate. The first questions U.S. strategy in extending […]

On April 4, Vietnam lodged an official protest with China, accusing it of sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat in the Paracel Islands. The spokesperson for China’s coastguard argued that the Vietnamese fishing boat sank after ramming into a China Coast Guard vessel. He also warned that China would move to enhance its control of fishing […]

The second visit in two years of a U.S. aircraft carrier to Vietnam turns a page in the relationship between the former Cold War nemeses. Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill along with their over 5,000 officers and crew concluded a five-day visit to Da Nang early this month, marking […]

While China and the United States’ significant nuclear forces makes it hard to imagine a future war between them, the possibility of localized military conflicts over the East China Sea, Taiwan, or the South China Sea cannot be ruled out. With the Trump administration’s release of the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Indo-Pacific […]

Recently, international observers have been puzzled to see Malaysia undertaking oil and gas operations in the overlapping extended continental shelf area defined by its 2009 joint submission with Vietnam to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). As reported by AMTI, the West Capella, a drillship contracted by Malaysian national oil and […]

If recent developments are any indication, the South China Sea will remain an intense flashpoint for the rest of this year. Two things are especially worth following. First is the degree of importance China will assign to the South China Sea given its myriad domestic and foreign policy priorities. Second is how far neighboring littoral […]

Despite pleas from several senior Philippine senators to reconsider his plan to abrogate the Philippine-U.S. Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), President Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly decided to scrap the 20-year old treaty. According to his presidential spokesperson, Duterte has already ordered his executive secretary to instruct Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin to serve the notice of termination […]