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On its surface, the situation in the South China Sea has not changed much compared to that before the passage of China’s Coast Guard Law, which took effect on February 1, 2021. China is still using grey zone tactics to scare away fishers and harass resource exploration projects from other territorial claimants in the South […]

Whitstun Reef, named Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines after the late composer of the Philippine national anthem, is becoming a new flashpoint in the South China Sea. The massing of about 220 Chinese fishing vessels in the reef in the past several weeks raises worries about China’s growing activities in the contested sea. The […]

Since taking office, Joseph Biden’s administration has overseen a renaissance in American commitment to multilateral diplomacy. In its first month in office, the new American leadership has embarked on a global charm offensive to restore frayed international ties following four years of Trumpian unilateralism and protectionism. Within a single week, President Biden held crucial talks […]

The bellicose tone emanating from Beijing in the last couple years has led to a pooling of resources by some other countries in the region, notably India, Japan, the United States, and Australia.  This can be seen in the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, in November 2017. This new version of the […]

Beijing’s South China Sea moves have ramped up with the passing of a law allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to fire on what it identifies as illegal foreign vessels in waters under its jurisdiction. By virtue of China’s nine-dash line claim, this law applies to the entire South China Sea. Given that China’s claims […]

On February 12, President Rodrigo Duterte, in anguish, finally admitted the importance of the Philippines-U.S. alliance and the need to renegotiate with Washington the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). The statement marked a significant shift in Duterte’s rhetoric on the matter from a year ago, when he pushed for abrogation of the VFA despite the […]

If there is a single phrase that best captures President-elect Joseph Biden’s still-nebulous foreign policy doctrine, it is this: “America is back”. In one of his most revealing interviews since the November elections, the incoming U.S. president made it clear that under his administration, “America’s going to reassert its role in the world and be […]

The Philippines’ interest in purchasing India’s BrahMos cruise missile has thrown a spotlight on the growing security ties between Manila and New Delhi. The acquisition of the supersonic anti-ship missile, which can be mounted on multiple platforms, would signal the arrival of Delhi as a new security partner for the Southeast Asian country. Not only […]

In 2007, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe noted in a landmark speech before the Indian Parliament titled “Confluence of the Two Seas” that “the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity.” The recent ending of Exercise Malabar 2020 marks the beginning of a […]

The South China Sea is an important maritime area for Malaysia. Besides being connected to the world’s major east-west trade routes, Malaysia is one of the claimant states of the Spratly Islands. The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN), however, is facing a growing mismatch between its naval capabilities and its interests in addressing maritime challenges in […]

On October 15, 2020, President Rodrigo Duterte announced the lifting of the six-year moratorium on oil and natural gas exploration at Reed Bank (Recto Bank). The previous administration of President Benigno Aquino imposed the ban on energy exploration in the face of China’s coercive actions in this part of the South China Sea. In March […]

The first standalone ministerial meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), hosted by Tokyo early this month, raised expectations about the role the four-member group will play in the fast-changing Indo-Pacific strategic landscape. India’s invitation for Australia to join the 2020 Malabar exercises next month transformed what began as U.S.-India maritime drills in 1992 into […]

Territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea have been a major irritant in Philippines–China relations. When Rodrigo Duterte became president in 2016, a policy decision to underscore pragmatism in relations with China and opt for a moderated approach to dispute settlement in the South China Sea became clear. In November 2018, China and […]

(Photo: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan) Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has a tough act to follow. For almost a decade, his predecessor and former boss, Shinzo Abe, played a pivotal role in revamping Japan’s foreign and defense policy. Some would even credit the former Japanese leader as the chief architect of the “Indo-Pacific” […]

On August 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security added 24 Chinese companies to the Entity List for their activities in the South China Sea. The bureau targeted these entities specifically for “their role in helping the Chinese military construct and militarize the internationally condemned artificial islands in the South China […]

This week, the U.S. government for the first time imposed economic penalties on Chinese businesses for their behavior in the South China Sea. The Commerce Department placed 24 Chinese companies on the Entity List. The list restricts exports of certain goods to companies and individuals that threaten U.S. national security or foreign policy priorities. According […]

China’s maritime encroachments in the South China Sea continue unabated amid Covid-19. China’s infringement upon the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of littoral states such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as its conducting of naval drills in disputed waters in July have reflected its intransigence in adhering to the United Nations Convention on the […]

The China-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative recently published a commentary, which criticized the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Freedom of Navigation (FON) Report for 2019.  This commentary was authored by Ching Chang, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies in Taipei. It attempts to discredit the DOD FON Report, alleging […]

“Are you with us?” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte once dared former U.S. ambassador Philip Goldberg on the question of South China Sea. Survey after survey has shown that the vast majority of Filipinos see the United States as their most important international partner. This should come as no surprise, given America’s role as relatively benign […]

One consequence of the recent standoff between India and China in the Himalayas has been a re-examination of the role of the Quadrilateral Framework (hereafter, Quad) as an “effective instrument of dissuasion and moderation.” The foreign, security, and economic policies of Australia, as the southern bookend of the Quad, are receiving renewed attention in India. […]

In the early dawn of July 12, 2020, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) of the Philippines issued a statement on the fourth anniversary of the issuance of the arbitral award on the South China Sea dispute. Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin declared that the arbitration case initiated and won by the Philippines versus China […]

China has not only attempted to change facts on the ground in the South China Sea, but is also seeking to gradually change the world’s mind regarding its claims there. This battle over perceptions has not received adequate attention. China’s Mapfare The nine-dash line is a representation of China’s expansive claims in the South China […]

Yesterday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced an important shift in U.S. declaratory policy on the South China Sea. This morning, Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell elaborated further during remarks at CSIS’s annual South China Sea Conference. The press statement from Pompeo listed specific Chinese maritime claims the United States considers illegal. The statement […]

The potential for a quadrilateral Exercise Malabar has risen fast in the post-Covid-19 order. This comes on the back of the upgrade of the India-Australia strategic partnership to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” at the June 4 virtual summit between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Scott Morrison. Australian High Commissioner to India Barry O’Farrell ignited hopes […]

During my visit to Hainan last December, the mood among Chinese officials was largely somber. Despite the triumphant launch of the country’s first indigenously-built aircraft carrier, attended by no less than President Xi Jinping, there was a profound sense of foreboding. The Chinese leader warned of  the “grey rhinos” of domestic economic imbalances and “black […]

China’s growing presence and activities in the South China Sea even amid a pandemic provide ample motivation for the Philippine decision to suspend the termination of its 20-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States. There are several other factors, however, that may also be at play. Manila wants a reset in the defense […]

For the last several months the world has been shocked by the Covid-19 outbreak. Though first and foremost a global public health problem, its impact has extended far beyond. Economists, sociologists, psychologists, and experts from all fields have begun to analyze the changes the pandemic has wrought in their areas. Chief among these secondary effects […]

Hydrocarbon exploration by Malaysia’s Petronas recently triggered a three-way standoff in the South China Sea that lasted nearly six months. It only ended in mid-May upon the departure of the West Capella, the drillship at the heart of the matter. Tensions peaked in April with the deployment of a Chinese survey ship to Malaysia’s exclusive […]

April 23 marked the 71st anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As U.S.-China frictions continue and great power competition becomes the central focus of U.S. defense strategy, the question of just how far the PLAN has come in its development has become critical. Does the PLAN currently pose a threat […]

A series of recent reports from the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) at Peking University’s Institute of Ocean Research have arbitrarily labeled Vietnamese fishermen as “maritime militia” based on limited AIS data without further supporting evidence. But without a clear understanding of the Vietnamese maritime militia, such arguments are at best whataboutism […]