Despite a turbulent 2024 in the South China Sea, at least one constant remained: the China Coast Guard’s (CCG) presence was ubiquitous but seemingly unable to impose Beijing’s will on other claimants. Analysis of AIS data from commercial provider Starboard Maritime Analytics shows that Beijing maintained daily patrols at key locations across the South China Sea in 2024, continuing to use the proximity of its island bases and size of its coast guard fleet to monitor and challenge the activities of other claimants within the nine-dash line.
China Coast Guard Patrols in the South China Sea
2024
AMTI examined historical AIS data from the year 2024 to measure number of days CCG ships patrolled across six locations in the South China Sea: Luconia Shoals, Sabina Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal, Thitu Island, and the southwestern edge of the nine-dash line (Southwest/Vanguard Bank). Because of the incomplete nature of AIS data, these figures are minimum estimates, with the true level of coast guard presence likely higher. The data shows a minor increase in overall patrol volume when compared to 2023 and slight shifts in patrol behavior at Vanguard Bank and Second Thomas Shoal. On a macro level, however, CCG patrols in 2024 were largely consistent with those of the past several years.
Patrols observed in 2024 amounted to 1,939 ship days, an increase from 2023’s 1,652. This was accompanied by an increase in the calendar days patrolled across all locations aside from Second Thomas Shoal, which instead fell from 302 in 2023 to 263 calendar days in 2024.
AIS track of the China Coast Guard 5205 from August to December 2024
CCG presence at Second Thomas dropped off following a July agreement between China and the Philippines to reduce tensions at the feature. But much of this effort appears to have simply shifted to nearby Sabina Shoal, which saw an uptick in tensions and CCG presence after collisions between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels at Sabina on August 19.
The largest increase in calendar days patrolled (from 221 in 2023 to 354 in 2024) occurred in the southwest region of China’s nine-dash line claim, near Vanguard Bank. This brings the level of CCG presence in the area back above even the levels of 2022, when the CCG was seen patrolling Vanguard on 310 calendar days.
AIS track of the China Coast Guard 5402 from January to December 2024
But where in years past the CCG in this area focused primarily on monitoring Vietnamese oil and gas concessions at Vanguard Bank, patrols now have expanded southward to encompass a larger area, with vessels spending most of their time operating along the intersection of the Vietnamese, Indonesian, and Malaysian exclusive economic zones. From this base of operations, CCG ships like the 5402 were seen making runs through Vietnam’s oil and gas fields at Nam Con Son as well as Malaysian deepwater hydrocarbon projects, and even facing off with Indonesian law enforcement and navy over survey activity on Indonesia’s continental shelf.
Patrols at Scarborough Shoal were consistent throughout the year and showed an increase in ship-days from 376 in 2023 to 516 in 2024. This increase, however, is likely due more to variation in AIS data quality than any substantial change in CCG behavior, as satellite imagery has consistently shown two or more CCG vessels at Scarborough for years. Patrols near Philippine-occupied Thitu Island also saw an increase, rising from 206 calendar days in 2023 to 241 in 2024. And, as previewed in AMTI’s October report, patrols near Malaysian oil and gas activity at Luconia Shoals were remarkably consistent in 2024, with a ship seen on station for 359 calendar days.
Conclusion
China’s coast guard is as active as ever in patrolling every corner of its vast claim in the South China Sea. But despite years of CCG vessels operating in Southeast Asian maritime zones and challenging new hydrocarbon activity, there has been relatively little success in changing the behavior of other claimants. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam have shown no sign of stopping their oil and gas projects, with the former two actively expanding their efforts in recent years. Only the Philippines, which placed a moratorium on exploration in the South China Sea in 2015 and has faced much more significant frictions with Chinese ships in disputed waters, has remained dissuaded from restarting new drilling. As the era of ubiquitous CCG presence continues, it remains to be seen whether Beijing is content with merely flying the flag at the southern reaches of the nine-dash line, or if it is willing to take greater risks to attempt to enforce its claims.
Cover photo: NurPhoto/Getty Images
