In November 2014, the United States and China concluded two major confidence-building measures (CBMs), which they announced at a bilateral summit. The CBMs include an agreement that each side will notify the other of major military activities, and a code of conduct for safe maritime and air encounters. Where the code of conduct is concerned, […]
It’s hard to imagine that the risk of war in Asia could hinge on something as pedestrian and mundane-sounding as “confidence-building measures” or CBMs. Yet this obscure piece of security terminology, originating during the Cold War, is now front and center in discussions of the future of U.S.-China strategic relations. Policymakers and military leaders in […]
President Barack Obama’s visit to India on January 25-27, 2015 renewed India’s place as a centerpiece of the “pivot to Asia.” Moving ahead with long-pending strategic deals on civilian nuclear trade and defense co-development, along with the renewal of our expiring New Framework for the U.S. India Defense Relationship, underscores the new cooperative spirit with […]
The first month of 2015 has witnessed a slow thawing of China-Japan relations. Following up their Beijing summit meeting in November of 2014, the two Asian giants resumed two maritime security talks in January of 2015 – one between their two defense departments, and the other working level diplomatic talks between the governments. So far […]
Introduction The arbitration case launched by the Philippines against China currently stands as the most significant, and most closely watched, development for specialists and observers of the maritime disputes in the South China Sea (SCS). To help observers navigate through this foggy proceeding, this article attempts to provide a focused overview of the arbitration case […]
When it comes to the South China Sea, the year 2014 was a rollercoaster. With Manila’s arbitration efforts against Beijing gaining momentum, 2015 will present new challenges not only to Philippine-China bilateral relations, but also to the very credibility of international arbitration bodies under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of […]
The next stage in the Philippines’ closely-watched arbitration case against China’s maritime claims will come in March when Manila’s lawyers submit their answers to questions posed last month by the five judge panel overseeing the case. The Philippines has put together a clever case, one that seeks to skirt China’s exemptions to compulsory arbitration as […]
The 2012 Scarborough Shoal stand-off between the Philippines and China was the proverbial tipping point caused by China’s pattern of protracted, aggressive actions against the Philippines that began two years earlier. In mid-2010, the Philippine government had observed an increased Chinese naval presence and activities in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), recorded reports of […]
One of the weakest military and economic powers in the region – the Philippines – took the strongest – China – to international court in 2013. The Philippines challenges China’s assertion of vast maritime claims over the South China Sea, pursuant to detailed rules and binding dispute resolution processes of the UN Convention of the […]
China’s various maritime actors are increasingly being coordinated and directed by senior policymakers as part of a larger strategy aimed at protecting China’s sovereignty and maritime rights. The first signs of strengthened coordination and supervision were evident as early as mid-2012, when Chinese maritime vessels and Chinese fishing boats—with People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships […]
The year 2015 provides the Obama administration with new opportunities in Southeast Asia to reinforce and bolster the rebalance to Asia. Myanmar In Myanmar, the United States should expand its support and training efforts to build political parties, strengthen the parliament, and prepare for monitoring activities ahead of the country’s 2015 elections to ensure they […]
There is robust support for the pivot to Asia in the United States and the region, but there are questions about the goal of the strategy and the resources available. U.S. agencies have made parallel efforts to expand engagement in Asia, but there is no unifying strategic plan that aligns these efforts to national goals. […]
Where China is concerned, successful implementation of the rebalance hinges upon a recognition in both capitals that neither country can hope to organize the future order in East Asia without the other. Chinese and U.S. leaderships say they subscribe to this axiom, but their respective behavior suggests that both sides seem reluctant to truly eschew […]
In this last quarter of the Obama administration, U.S. leaders have a critical opportunity to make progress on a host of policies vital to strengthening the U.S. position in Asia. While the Trans-Pacific Partnership will rightfully dominate the domestic debate in early 2015, an equally important debate is occurring in the halls of the Pentagon […]
Asian maritime security issues will continue to be topical in Washington in 2015 and there will be a lot of D.C. chatter about events in the Indo-Pacific region. To make a difference and to produce favorable outcomes for the United States, however, some heavy lifting must take place in Washington. The most important maritime activity […]
In November, Tokyo and Beijing agreed to disagree on their views on territory and history to resume talks on crisis communication mechanisms in the East China Sea. Tokyo and Beijing reached a common understanding of its structure and methods that a hotline should employ. There is an urgent need for such a mechanism due to […]
On July 3, 2014, the President of China, Xi Jinping, made a historic visit to Seoul. It holds significance because this was the first time a Chinese President has visited Seoul before traveling to Pyongyang. Moreover, the Joint Statement released as an outcome of the summit between President Xi and President Park Geun-hye, includes some […]
On 28 April 2014, Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Philip Goldberg signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). The EDCA is not a new agreement since it merely updates and enhances the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. It provides the framework by which the Philippines and the U.S. can develop their […]
The South China Sea is likely to persist as a source of tension both between China and its Southeast Asian maritime neighbors, and between China and the United States in 2015. China’s land reclamation activities, which are taking place at six of the seven reefs under Chinese control in the Spratly Island chain, will advance […]
In recent weeks, the international politics of the South China Sea has seen a number of encouraging developments. At their meeting on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Beijing in November, Benigno Aquino claimed to have had a “meeting of minds” with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Also at the APEC […]
When the Philippines announced its intent in January 2013 to file a case against China at a tribunal in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, many ASEAN countries remained silent or even worried out loud that Manila was “rolling the dice” and would be the subject of Beijing’s wrath. The mood in Southeast Asia has changed. […]
In 2013, the Philippines instituted arbitration proceedings in the Hague against China over disputed South China Sea maritime claims – and in doing so it challenged legally of China’s nine-dash line claims over much of that area. Both states are parties to the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which allows for […]
In tracking Asia’s maritime tensions in 2015, what I will be looking for above all is evidence that China is actually following through on its newfound commitments to risk-reduction and crisis-management. For much of the time since Chinese maritime assertiveness increased, from 2009 onwards, the guiding attitude seemed to be that Chinese forces were willing […]
Maritime Asia will be active and more pacific in the coming year. Maritime trade will continue apace with tens of millions of shipping containers and millions of barrels of petroleum products moving on Asian sea lanes. That feeding of the Asian and global economies will be taken for granted, but there are three categories to […]
Despite the growing interest in maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region among experts, it remains an open question how focused the Obama administration will be on the challenges in that region in 2015. It is doubtful that the security of the offshore Pacific island chain ranks in the top five issues for National Security Advisor […]
Following the election of the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government in May 2014, we have seen a sharper and more vigorous focus on foreign policy in India. Modi has embraced a more strategic outlook than his predecessors, which signals a break from India’s traditional policy of “non-alignment”. The focus of the Modi government’s foreign […]
The friction between China and Vietnam over the oil rig Haiyang Shiyou-981 (in Vietnamese: Hải Dương-981) was a major point of South China Sea tension in 2014. The stakes were not so big that that the parties resorted to military action, but this episode was an important sign that Hanoi does not intend to swallow the […]
Taiwan’s local elections of 2014 were held on November 29 and elected 6 municipal mayors and 16 county magistrates. The KMT (Kuomintang, Nationalist Party), Taiwan’s ruling party, won only 6 out of the 22 local seats and gained just 40.7 percent of the vote. Jiang Yi-huah, Taiwan’s premier, resigned after election. President Ma Ying-jeou also […]
Beijing has reached its December 15 deadline to submit its defense in the arbitration case against its South China Sea claims brought by the Philippines. That case, brought under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea’s (UNCLOS) compulsory dispute mechanism, is summarized here. The Chinese government has no intention of taking part in […]