Hard Power Meets Soft: Obama’s Visit to Vietnam
U.S. and Vietnam build trust, sending a strong deterrence signal to China.
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EDCA and the Projection of U.S. Air Power in the South China Sea
U.S.-Philippine security cooperation will combat China’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea
What Will a Duterte Administration Mean?
For Duterte, development rather than deterrence is the way forward
Vietnam’s Island Building: Double-Standard or Drop in the Bucket?
China has sought to deflect criticism of its island building in the South China Sea by accusing other claimants, especially Vietnam, of doing the same. AMTI has examined each of the islets and reefs Vietnam occupies in the Spratly Islands and found evidence of reclamation at 10 of them. The images below suggest Vietnam has […]
Taipei’s Risky Agreement with Beijing on Okinotorishima
Taiwan challenges Japan’s claim to an exclusive economic zone in order to protect security and fishing interests
Submerged Deterrence: China’s Struggle to Field an SSBN Fleet
The development of China’s ballistic missile submarine could enhance its second strike capability
Has Taiwan Implicitly Clarified the U-Shaped Line?
Taiwan faces pressure to define the legal character of the U-shaped line, the predecessor of the nine dash line.
Why Undersea Drones Will (Not Yet) Change Asia-Pacific’s Undersea Balance
Undersea drones are the newcomers to planned U.S. force posture in the Asia-Pacific, though seemingly not tipping the balance toward offensive action
Scarborough Shoal: A Red Line?
Transforming Scarborough into an artificial island-fortress could be the endgame in China’s rush to establish and consolidate control over the South China Sea.
Balikatan Exercise Highlights Territorial Defense and Multilateral Approach
This year’s military exercise reflects the changing nature of the U.S.-Philippines alliance in light of heightened tensions generated by China’s expansion in the South China Sea.
East China Sea Tensions: Approaching a Slow Boil
Mounting tensions over the disputed Senkaku Islands have been a constant in Sino-Japanese relations since Tokyo purchased three of the five islands in 2012. For the last four years, Chinese coast guard vessels have regularly patrolled in the vicinity of the East China Sea islands and have often entered within the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea around […]
Creating Seamless Maritime Security Coalitions in the Indo-Pacific
With rapid expansion of China’s power, the region needs to establish flexible mechanisms for collective maritime security cooperation.
Colombo Port City and the Limits of India’s Regional Diplomacy
The restart of construction raises alarm in India that the project will give China increased influence in the Indian Ocean.
Flexible Response to Deter in the South China Sea
The United States needs to demonstrate the will to challenge China and a specific plan to counteract Chinese measures.
Podcast: Itu Aba and Taiwan’s Amicus Brief
Taiwanese influence arbitration in the South China Sea
How Elections Could Change Manila’s South China Sea Policy (Or Not)
Anti-China sentiment is at historic highs among the Filipino public, leaving little room for major foreign policy recalibration
Developing a Scarborough Contingency Plan
To block Chinese reclamation, Philippine assets must prepare to take the lead in intervention at short notice.
Will Others Respect Precedent Set in the Philippines’ Case?
U.S. ratification of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea has bipartisan support, but it could lead to the loss of 200 exclusive economic zones
Will Indonesia, Provoked, Now Choose to Lead on the South China Sea?
Law enforcement clash in the South China Sea leaves Indonesia caught between attracting Chinese investment and protecting its own sovereignty
Exploring Itu Aba: A Virtual Tour of a South China Sea Islet
On January 23, AMTI Director Gregory Poling and Ambassador José Abeto Zaide, now with the Manila Bulletin, became the first foreigners in 15 years to visit Itu Aba (Taiping Dao in Chinese)—the only feature in the Spratly Islands occupied by Taiwan. They accompanied a delegation of Taiwanese experts and officials, including the ministers of foreign […]
The Philippines and Japan Sign New Defense Agreement
Philippine defense secretary Voltaire Gazmin and Japanese ambassador to the Philippines Kazuhide Ishikawa on February 29 signed a new defense agreement to allow the transfer of defense equipment and technology from Japan to the Philippines. It also provides for the Philippines and Japan to conduct joint research and development, and even joint production, of defense […]
China Creates a Second Chance for the ‘Quad’
Will Australia, India, Japan and the United States move from exercising together to operating together? In the end, it will probably be China’s actions that determine where the Quad will go next.
Managing Sino-U.S. Disagreements in the South China Sea
Will issue divergence overcome the U.S. and China’s common interests and lead to a violent confrontation? Our analysis suggests not.
“Self-Restraint” with Japanese Characteristics
Japan’s model of self-restraint in the Senkaku Islands is a model of regional stability for China in the South China Sea
The South China Sea Tests
Following the U.S.-ASEAN leaders’ summit tensions rise, testing international rules and norms
Setting a high bar down under: An American perspective on Australia’s White Paper
The Australian Defence White Paper was a long time coming, but it was worth the wait. From an American perspective, the White Paper is a carefully crafted document that will leave many in Washington both pleased with and envious of Canberra’s strategic conceptualisation and connection of ends and means. The White Paper notes that ‘a […]
Vietnam’s South China Sea Approach after National Congress
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was unanimously reelected during the 12th National Congress of Vietnam’s Communist Party, held January 21-28. Trong, who is less strident than other Vietnamese leaders in his criticism of Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea, has been seen as leading the party’s more conservative, pro-Chinese faction. But many in Hanoi […]
Another Piece of the Puzzle
China’s airstrip construction at Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi reefs, and more recently developments in the Paracel Islands, have dominated the South China Sea discussion. But capabilities being developed at its smaller Spratly Island outposts—Gaven, Hughes, Johnson South, and especially Cuarteron reefs—will prove equally important to Beijing’s long-term strategy. This month’s deployment of HQ-9 surface-to-air […]
A Tumultuous 2016 in the South China Sea
This promises to be a landmark year for the claimant countries and other interested parties in the South China Sea disputes. Developments that have been underway for several years, especially China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys and Manila’s arbitration case against Beijing, will come to fruition. These and other developments will draw outside players, including […]
Seeing the Forest through the SAMs on Woody Island
The recent deployment of Chinese surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to Woody Island is a notable tactical development, but a far more significant strategic signal. Tactically, the HQ-9 batteries deployed to Woody Island could target aircraft at ranges up to 125 miles (200 kilometers), covering much of the Paracel Islands, which are also claimed by Vietnam and […]