The July 12 arbitral tribunal ruling was the first significant international law decision on maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Some commentators suggest that the tribunal’s ruling could be a game changer for managing or resolving maritime disputes in the highly-disputed waterway.
Breaking with tradition, the Philippines’ controversial leader Rodrigo Duterte chose China for the first major state visit of his presidency. Traditionally, Filipino leaders have visited “all-weather” friends such as Washington or Tokyo before Beijing. This time, however, the Filipino president decided to postpone a scheduled visit to Japan in favor of China, while signaling strategic […]
With Russia deep in the trenches of global power competition, the contours of its long-term interests in the South China Sea are perhaps starting to take shape.
Justice Antonio Carpio of the Supreme Court of the Philippines sits down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to discuss constitutional requirements for any joint fisheries or oil and gas deal in the South China Sea, as well as the limits of President Rodrigo Duterte’s power to change treaty commitments.
Power differentials between states affect how they view and respond to the South China Sea disputes. Small powers largely see them as a clash of unilateral territorial and maritime claims over all or part of the semi-enclosed sea, whereas big powers frame them in a more strategic manner – a contest for control over a critical international waterway. Small powers focus on immediate and direct concerns like resource access, whereas big powers stress universal freedoms of navigation and overflight. Lumping claims and freedoms together muddles and complicates the resolution of South China Sea disputes. Disaggregating them, however, may allow for opportunities to tackle part of the dispute separately.
Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s recent trip to Beijing yielded a number of agreements, including a vaguely-worded commitment to peacefully resolve the South China Sea disputes. But there was no public breakthrough on one closely-watched topic: the ability of Filipino fishermen to return to Scarborough Shoal. An international tribunal ruled on July 12 that China’s closure of the shoal to Philippine fishing was illegal. But in the lead-up to Duterte’s visit, Filipino fishermen complained that it was becoming more, not less, difficult for them to approach Scarborough. Recent satellite imagery supports this conclusion.
Amid signs of Duterte rejecting the United States and pivoting fully toward China, the ongoing warmth of the Philippines’ security relationship with Japan—China’s greatest rival in East Asia—hints at a greater balancing act within Duterte’s foreign policy vision.
Two related disputes between Japan and China in the East China Sea flared again in early August. Japan’s foreign ministry on August 9th revealed that China had deployed a radar system on one of its oil platforms in the East China Sea.
China’s economic statecraft has softened the resolve of some EU member-states and groomed them to advocate Beijing’s position on the South China Sea. The slow erosion of Europe’s values as well as inability to come together and speak with one voice on rule of law contributes to the unraveling fabric of global governance. Beijing’s successful wedge […]
As President Rodrigo Duterte completes his first 100 days as leader of the Philippines, the former mayor has caused ripples by questioning the foundation of the alliance between the U.S. and its former colony. He’s known as a “colorful” character, so should we take his comments, and those of his cabinet, at face value? AMTI Director Gregory Poling weighs in, in conversation with Colm Quinn.
Once celebrated as a model multilateral organization and an agent of positive regional change, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in disarray. On July 12, a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued a judgment on the South China Sea that is widely seen as a victory for ASEAN […]
Maritime Disputes by Year View the extent of disputes over water and seabed in Asia in 2000 and 2015. The types of dispute—over the continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, or both—are distinguished by color. View other AMTI maps
Philippines v. China: Arbitration Outcomes On July 12 an arbitral tribunal issued a long-awaited ruling in Manila’s case against Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea. How did the judges rule and how does the area of the South China Sea they found to be legally disputed compare to China’s infamous nine-dash line claim? […]