The Modernization of the Vietnam People’s Navy: Grand Goals and Limited Options
The official commissioning of six new Kilo submarines is a landmark moment for the Vietnam People’s Navy in its transformation from a brown-water to a green-water navy.
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Tracking China’s Coast Guard off Borneo
Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels maintain a near-constant presence at Luconia Shoals off the coast of Malaysia’s Sarawak State. That uncomfortable fact does not garner much attention, either in the Malaysian or international press, but it speaks to Beijing’s determination to establish administrative control throughout the nine-dash line.
Podcast: Chinese Research Vessels in Benham Rise, with Peter Dutton and Jay Batongbacal
Reports of Chinese oceanographic research vessels operating off the western coast of the Philippines in late 2016 have stirred up controversy in Manila this month. In this AMTI podcast, Greg Poling speaks with Peter Dutton, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College, and Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines’ Institute for Maritime Affairs and the Law of the Sea, to assess what the Chinese vessels were doing, whether it was legal, the public response, and what the controversy says about future cooperation between China and the Philippines
Indonesian Sea Policy: Accelerating Jokowi’s Global Maritime Fulcrum?
Taken collectively, Jokowi’s Sea Policy does not yet appear to have fundamentally changed how the Indonesian government would implement or elevate the GMF.
Raging Waters in Benham Rise
Philippine secretary of national defense Delfin Lorenzana stirred up a political maelstrom in Manila last week with the revelation that Chinese survey vessels were apparently conducting oceanographic research work off the east coast of Luzon, the largest island of the Philippines.
Dealmaker in Paradise
A rumored Saudi Arabian plan to buy an atoll in the Maldives is unlikely to significantly alter the Indian Ocean security environment. The concern the plan has provoked, however, is a sign of how sensitive regional governments have become to any developments that appear to threaten the region’s fragile order.
Podcast: Cloudy Horizon in U.S.-Philippine Relations
AMTI Director Gregory Poling discusses the implications of Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s relationship with Donald Trump, its impact on the U.S.-PH alliance and maritime security, the fallout from Duterte’s drug war, and the decisions facing both sides.
The Era of Coast Guards in the Asia Pacific is Upon Us
On its face, having coast guards patrol large bodies of disputed territory might be cause for optimism. But the way coast guards are employed in the South China Sea as blunt instruments to assert state power gives more cause for concern than optimism.
Under Duterte, ASEAN Could Cede Clout for Consensus
Country-level pragmatic calculations may contribute to more peaceful relations among claimant states, but risk driving ASEAN into total irrelevance as China shapes the regional agenda on its own terms.
Involving Philippine Military in Duterte Drug War Could Force Cuts in U.S. Aid
If the Philippine military is conscripted into Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war and participates in extra-judicial killings, congressional regulations could force the United States to suspend military aid and training to the units involved, a potentially devastating impact on the bilateral military relationship.
Securing the Sunlight: How China Is Powering the South China Sea
Regular reporting on China’s island reclamations, or terriclaims, and related activities in the South China Sea appear to have missed one vital piece of analysis: how is China powering its new installations?
A Look at China’s SAM Shelters in the Spratlys
A February 21 Reuters report said China has nearly completed structures that could house surface-to-air missile batteries on the Spratly Islands. AMTI has images of the shelters under construction.
The Geopolitics of Infrastructure: ASEAN’s China Challenge
Backers of the Master Plan for ASEAN Connectivity 2025 have called for cooperation between it and China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, but the shift in geopolitical calculations resulting from such a partnership could cost ASEAN more than it bargained for.
South China Sea Guidelines for the New Administration
A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior.
Duterte’s Pivot to Putin
A new chapter has begun in the long-stale Philippines-Russia relationship.
Thinking About Long-term Strategy in the South China Sea
Those concerned with East Asian security need to think about what the South China Sea will look like five years down the road, and consider the politico-military-economic consequences of Chinese domination of the South China Sea.
Prepare for a Stormy 2017 in the South China Sea
It is understandable that some observers, especially in Asia, want to believe that Beijing has turned over a new leaf. But it is much more likely that tensions will return with a vengeance in 2017.
Vietnam Coast Guard: Challenges and Prospects of Development
The role of the Vietnam Coast Guard in Vietnam’s overall maritime strategy is rising in importance, but comes with its own set of difficulties in implementation.
Duterte, Trump, and Manila’s Changing Foreign Policy
The surprising election of Donald Trump has raised hopes for a less fraught relationship between Washington and Manila in the near future.
The Strategic Significance of the Taiwan-Japan Maritime Affairs Dialogue
Taiwan and Japan’s shared problems and interests as fellow maritime countries could help the two sides to deepen their “quasi maritime alliance partnership.”
Podcast: China’s New Spratly Island Defenses
Admiral Michael McDevitt (Ret.) of the Center for Naval Analyses and Cortez Cooper of the RAND Corporation sit down with AMTI director Gregory Poling to look at new imagery of Chinese point defenses on the Spratly Islands.
China’s New Spratly Island Defenses
China appears to have built significant point-defense capabilities, in the form of large anti-aircraft guns and probable close-in weapons systems (CIWS), at each of its outposts in the Spratly Islands. AMTI began tracking the construction of identical, hexagon-shaped structures at Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi Reefs in June and July. It now seems that these […]
Is South Korea’s Use of Force Against Chinese Fishing Vessels Illegal?
Continuing clashes between Chinese fishing vessels and the Korean Coast Guard should be of concern to all countries in the region due to the complex problems they pose.
Taking Stock of the Alliance as the Philippines Prepares for Trump
Key agreements and relationships remain in place for a U.S.-Philippine alliance reset under the incoming Donald Trump administration, but there are reasons to be skeptical about whether the relationship can be put back on an upward trajectory.
India Needs More Than Cautious Statements on the South China Sea
China’s actions since the South China Sea arbitration ruling show that India needs to take a stronger line if it wants to achieve its objectives. Given the importance of the principles at stake, it would be in India’s best interests to take a more forward-looking and forward-leaning approach to the South China Sea dispute.
President Duterte’s Backtracking Prompts Hope for Compromise
Security analysts have questioned whether U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation can survive six years of a Philippine president seemingly driven by anti-Western ideology. Those fears should be somewhat allayed, as Duterte has walked back some of his earlier pronouncements and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has declared that the Philippine-U.S. security alliance will not be abrogated and that the EDCA will stay in place.
Mischief Reef: President Trump’s First FONOP?
The election is barely over, but the pressure will soon be on the new administration and its national security team to demonstrate U.S. resolve to support international rules and norms in the South China Sea.
Japan: India’s Unique Maritime Partner
The annual summit between Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, held on November 11 in Tokyo, once again underscored the importance of maritime security in the bilateral relationship. Describing the relationship as “unique” and “special,” the two leaders talked of a greater convergence in their visions for Asia. While there have been developments in almost all areas of the relationship, maritime security under Modi and Abe has become one of the most visible areas of cooperation in the strategic partnership. By addressing strategic concerns beyond the realm of security cooperation, the leaders have found a unique and constructive way to collaborate in the Indian Ocean and beyond.
UPDATED: Vietnam Responds with Spratly Air Upgrades
Vietnam is responding to China’s construction of military facilities in the Spratly Islands by modestly expanding its own capabilities in the disputed chain. New imagery shows that Hanoi is significantly upgrading its sole runway in the South China Sea—at Spratly Island—and constructing new hangars at that feature. This is a familiar pattern for Hanoi. Even amid reduced diplomatic tensions, Vietnam continues to modernize its military and seek closer security ties with Japan, the United States, and India in preparation for future Chinese assertiveness in disputed waters. Reuters recently reported that Vietnam had deployed surface to air missile platforms to the Spratlys. Hanoi has not confirmed those reports, but such countermeasures should not be surprising in light of the significant air power that China will soon project over the Spratlys.
Vietnam’s Foreign Policy: In Search of a New Delicate Balance
Developments in the international affairs of Southeast Asia are generating considerable uncertainty and doubt among regional players, including Vietnam. Seeking a delicate balance between great powers, and among other regional states, is a necessity for Hanoi to keep Vietnam’s national interests and relationships with other countries undamaged.